Browns (-7.0) at Texans – 46.5 total

I’ll just keep it to football analysis here. We all know the big storyline. Deshaun Watson returns to the gridiron in Houston to face his former team. He hasn’t started a game since the end of the 2020 regular season, and he looked shaky in the preseason. But let’s assume he can deliver baseline-level play against a porous Texans defense.

There isn’t a matchup the Browns offense can’t exploit. Derek Stingley remains out, and we watched Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combine for 149 receiving yards in the first half. Amari Cooper has led the team in every receiving metric, from target share to air yards. But he’s got a sidekick who isn’t too far behind him. 

Donovan Peoples-Jones has earned an 18.8% target share with 26.6% of the team’s air yards over the last five games. Those are healthy WR2 metrics, but he’s also involved in the red zone. The third-year receiver is tied for second in looks from inside the 20-yard line. If we don’t see Nick Chubb plowing through the Texans’ front, the Browns’ passing attack can continue to excel (10th in dropback EPA) despite the quarterback switch.

If there was any hope to see Dameon Pierce get back on track, it’s on Sunday. Cleveland entered Week 12 dead last in rushing EPA allowed after giving up over 100 yards on the ground in back-to-back games. Rushing attacks have fared well against the Browns (unless you’re Tampa Bay), but I’m concerned about Pierce's workload. 

Game script hadn’t been an issue for Pierce in the past. Houston lost six straight games and trailed by two or more scores on 53.3% of their plays. Pierce handled 87.0% of the carries in those situations. Well, until last week. 

Dare Ogunbowale sniped half the totes and earned two targets on the day. We even saw Rex Burkhead mix in on 18.0% of the snaps. Hopefully, Lovie Smith’s decision to change quarterbacks didn’t make him change his mind about who’s his best option to keep the offense moving.