Browns at Texans

The Joe Flacco story keeps getting better every week. Despite throwing three INTs against the Bears, the 39-year-old still managed to grab Cleveland another win by throwing for 374 yards and two TDs (8.5 yards per attempt) against a Bears defense that was ranking out top ten in EPA per play and success rate against the pass over the last eight weeks. 

This week, Flacco will take on a Houston defense that has struggled to limit big plays in the secondary (21st in success rate against the pass). The Browns have had to place a couple of O-linemen on IR recently, but there is every chance that we see Flacco record his third straight game with over 300 yards against a poor Houston pass defense.  

Part of the reason why Flacco has been so successful of late is that Cleveland has an underrated receiving core. Amari Cooper and David Njoku have both endured huge late-season rebirths with Flacco under centre. Njoku has essentially turned into a fantasy league winner in the last two weeks, recording three TDs and two games in a row with 90+ yards. 

Dec 17, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15) throws the ball against the Chicago Bears during the first quarter at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Cooper rebounded from a slow Week 14 with a 7 reception, 77-yard game himself, and had a huge play down the stretch to help Cleveland grab the win against Chicago. While both men could excel this week, it’s quite possible we again see Njoku emerge as TE1 in fantasy leagues.  Houston has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and third-most receiving yards to the TE position this year. 

On the Houston side, the injury report will be well worth watching. Last week they were without star rookies CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr., and also continued to miss WR Nico Collins. Stroud (concussion) seems likely to be back this week, and Collins (calf) likely has a chance at playing as well. Anderson (ankle) is dealing with a high-ankle sprain and seems like he could be out another week. 

The Browns' defense has been banged up at times but got back CB Denzel Ward last week and could get starting LB Anthony Walker Jr. back for Week 16 as well. Ward is a huge boost, especially against Stroud, who averages 8.2 yards per attempt (3rd in the NFL). 

The line in this game is interesting. The Browns have won two games in a row under Flacco, and while they’ve suffered injuries to their offensive line, they’re also getting healthier on defense. Houston didn’t deserve to win the game last week, but the Titans' conservative playcalling in the second half gave them a chance to win it late, and to their credit they took the opportunity and ran with it. The Browns, who enter this week at 9-5 (and 8-5-1 ATS) seem far less likely to make the same mistake. 

From a prop perspective, the overs on receiving yards for both Cooper and Njoku will be of big interest when their totals get released, as Houston ranks 28th in yards per attempt against. It’s also worth noting that while Houston is just 5-9 at hitting overs this year, the Browns are 6-0 to the over on the road in 2023. Given how well Joe Flacco has played since returning, it wouldn't be shocking to see a couple of big plays/quick scores from Cleveland that help push the pace in this game—and push the final score over the current 42.5 total.

From a spread perspective, it’s worth noting that Houston has gone just 1-5 ATS as favorites this season. They currently sit as -2.5 favorites right now, making the Browns look like the side that offers early week value.