Buccaneers at 49ers (-3.5) – 37.5 total

It’s usually a pretty bad sign when the game total starts with a 3, but this matchup at least has some interesting storylines and plenty of big name players who could make this a fun one to watch. For starters, the most accomplished QB in NFL history is the underdog in this one despite, the other team fielding the very last player chosen in the 2022 NFL Draft as their QB. This scenario was most definitely not on anyone’s bingo card. 

Brock Purdy was serviceable following Jimmy Garoppolo’s foot injury this past Sunday. I have faith in Kyle Shanahan to scheme this offense to enough success to keep Christian McCaffrey as an elite RB option. Among the pass catchers, I still think one of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk should be relevant each week, but it will be hard to predict who from game to game. 

The Buccaneers will try to get their offense going against the league’s top defense. Tampa Bay has scored more than 20 points just once in their past seven games, yet they still lead the NFC South with a 6-6 record. Tom Brady has been getting the ball out quickly all year, and that will likely continue against this fierce 49ers pass rush. 

That should strongly favor Chris Godwin, who has seen 13 targets in each of his last two games and is a strong candidate for double digit targets this week, which makes him startable in any type of PPR format. On the other hand, this matchup could be serious trouble for Mike Evans and I would try to find a way to keep him on your bench if possible.

We will continue to learn more about how the Bucs are splitting backfield responsibilities down the stretch, but both Rachaad White and Leonard Fournette are desperation flex plays in this difficult matchup.

The 49ers adjusted to an in-game injury to their QB last week and still managed to beat a very good Dolphins team by double digits. As long as Purdy can keep the offense functional, their defense should ensure that this is a comfortable win for San Francisco.