Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills 

It has been a rough few weeks for the Bills. After their 48-20 win over the Dolphins, where Josh Allen briefly moved into favorite status for the MVP award, they have lost two of three games, and very nearly got humiliated by the very short-handed Giants in primetime in Week 6. 

While they have played poorly three weeks in a row, the loss last week was easily the crescendo of this stretch. Their passing defense, which is without Tre'davious White and Matt Milano (their best cover LB), got exposed by the beleaguered Mac Jones of all people (25-30 for 272 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT), and their offense imploded for three quarters before rallying late. 

Still, for all their faults, the Bills did give themselves the chance to win the game against the Patriots (and nearly pulled off the miraculous comeback) ... that’s the power of having Josh Allen (265-2-1, 7-17-1) as your quarterback. 

This week Allen and Stefon Diggs play a Tampa Bay team that tends to lean toward stopping the run (3.8 YPC against – 11th) and dares opposing teams to beat them downfield. That SHOULD play into the Bills' favor, but keep in mind that Buffalo has been running more in 2023. They are just 17th in pass rate in 2023, after being top 10 in the league the last two seasons in that stat. In terms of early down efficiency, they are a top three offense when they pass but a below average team when they run (via @benbbaldwin). 

Oct 22, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) breaks the tackle of New England Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson (29) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo absolutely needs to open things up this week and let Allen, Diggs, and rookie TE Dalton Kincaid (8-75) try to win this game for them. Dawson Knox (wrist) looks likely to miss some time, which should open the door for more Kincaid usage—who set career highs in catches and yards last week. Whether or not the Bills actually commit to this shift is a mystery. Right now, Josh Allen (shoulder) may be nursing an injury and he’s set to have career lows in the rushing department (21.1 rush yards per game in 2023 vs. 38.1 career average). 

Luckily for the Bills, they are playing the QB/HC duo of Baker Mayfield and Todd Bowles this week. Mayfield is 32-44-1 ATS for his career after losing to Atlanta last week, and Bowles is now 11-12 SU as Tampa’s head coach. Bowles is also now a horrendous 1-9-1 ATS after a loss during his time with Tampa. 

The Buccaneers are not the beacon of efficiency on offense—they are averaging 3.1 YPC (second last) and are 24th in offensive DVOA—but may be able to find success against Buffalo in the same spots that New England did. Rachaad White (13-34-0, 6-65-0) had his best game as a receiver last week and could be a valuable chain mover against the Bills, who have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs. 

The secondary of Buffalo also makes this a prime spot for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to break out. Evans remains the preferred downfield target (37% air yards share), but Godwin’s usage has been increasing (28% target share last week). Given the Bills' tackling issues and lack of depth, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Godwin finally break some big plays from the slot against a Bills defense that allowed Braxton Berrios to go for 6-43-1 in Week 4 and gave up a career day to unheralded rookie Demario Davis (4-54) last week. 

The last thing I want to do is bet on a Todd Bowles team to cover, but the 8.5 spread favoring the Bills just seems like way too much given the troubles this team is going through. I’d rather focus on player props for this game with Godwin, White, and Kincaid all potentially being in good spots to break out.