Buccaneers (-3.5) at Browns – 43.0 total

Are the Buccaneers officially back? That remains to be seen, but they’re coming off back-to-back wins in their last two contests. They beat the Rams at home and the Seahawks in Germany, and they had their bye in Week 11.

The bye should be helpful for Tom Brady, who continues to carry a massive workload at 45 years old. He leads the league in passing attempts and completions, and he also has the lowest interception rate in football. His efficiency hasn’t been quite as good as in the past – he’s averaged just 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt – but he still has the Buccaneers in first place in the NFC South.

Leonard Fournette missed the Bucs’ win in Germany, but he should return to the lineup vs. the Browns. However, he’s not expected to see his usual workload. Head coach Todd Bowles said he’ll ride the hot hand at running back, so Rachaad White has an opportunity to carry the load for the second straight game. White averaged 4.77 yards per carry as the Bucs’ starter in Week 10, and he has outstanding athleticism for the position.

On the other side, this will be the final game for Jacoby Brissett before handing the reins to Deshaun Watson. Brissett has done a nice job as the Browns’ starter this season, currently ranking eighth at the position.

Of course, the Browns’ offense still runs through their ground attack. They have the fifth-lowest pass rate over expectation, which makes sense with Nick Chubb in the backfield. Chubb is one of the most efficient runners in league history, and he’s averaging another 5.3 yards per attempt this season.

The Buccaneers coming off a bye creates an interesting dynamic in this contest, but I believe they're overvalued as 3.5-point road favorites. Both of their past two wins have serious asterisks. Their win over the Seahawks was played at 6:30 a.m. PT, which meant the Seahawks’ rhythms were all out of whack. They also trailed for most of the game against the Rams before escaping with a late win. Maybe they were able to fix some things during the bye, but this team has been overvalued all season. I’m fine with backing the Browns as home underdogs.