Buccaneers (-7.5) at Cardinals – 40.5 total

I’m frustrated with both of these offenses, as they’ve underachieved relative to expectations. But Tampa Bay will still likely make the playoffs, while the Cardinals have franchise-changing decisions ahead of them. It would be reductive of me to say we should focus on the team not starting their third-string quarterback, but there are fantasy options from both teams to consider.

We saw the Buccaneers get back to their roots on offense against the Bengals. Tom Brady’s play-action passing rate was up to 30.4% (above 20.0% for the first time since Week 10), which helped him get to 13th in passing success rate. While he wasn’t as efficient (19th in EPA per play), he can still distribute the ball to his pass catchers.

Since the team’s bye, Chris Godwin has led the team in total targets (43) and, more importantly, red-zone looks (7). His 69.8% target rate from the slot is like an easy button for Brady. And the matchup tilts in Godwin’s favor. Jerry Jeudy accrued 48 of his 76 yards from the inside, and the Chargers’ interior crew of Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer, and DeAndre Carter combined for 84 yards and two scores. Godwin’s 23.8% TPRR puts him in the WR1 conversation, but there’s another Bucs receiver with a similar workload.

No, it’s not Mike Evans. Evans has run just 19.7% of his routes from the inside, and the Brady-Evans downfield connection has yet to get back on track, with only two deep receptions in four weeks. He’s a low-end WR2, as Brady has looked his way the most when under pressure (12 targets). But it’s Russell Gage who has stepped up over the last month.

To be fair, four of Gage’s 12 targets in Week 15 came on the final drive of their blowout loss to Cincinnati. Regardless, his route deployment looks like Godwin’s, giving him flex appeal in PPR formats. But our biggest headache will be deciding what to do with the running backs.

 Leonard Fournette’s situational usage gives him the inside track, but Rachaad White’s red-zone touch rate and target share keep him fantasy-relevant. Both are worthy of a start after watching Latavius Murray grind his way to an RB1 result (favoring Fournette) and another rookie RB finding the paint in Week 14 (giving credence to White).

On the Arizona side, it’s tough to expect much from Trace McSorley in his first start. After Colt McCoy exited last week, the offense averaged 18.8 yards per drive and dropped to a -9.1% passing rate over expected. Marquise Brown was a late addition to the injury report, pushing him further into WR3 territory. So a focus on the core options is prudent with so much on the line this weekend.

You don’t need me to tell you to start DeAndre Hopkins. But I can at least make you feel better about it. McSorley targeted Hopkins on 40.0% of his attempts. The veteran receiver is right behind Brown in slot targets, which should keep his fantasy production afloat in Week 16. And I’m not too worried about James Conner either.

Conner was second in looks from McSorley against the Broncos, so his floor is safe in PPR leagues, especially if Brown isn’t at full strength. Plus, it’s not like anyone is coming for Conner’s workload.

I thought the team would look more into Keontay Ingram, but a random touch for Corey Clement is the only thing keeping Conner from a complete backfield takeover. Tampa Bay is league average in rushing EPA allowed since their bye. His team environment may be suboptimal, but Conner’s RB1 workload is tough to find elsewhere in the fantasy semi-finals.