Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts

This isn’t one of the more exciting matchups of the week, but it’s one that could provide some betting value. The Buccaneers got off to a solid start this season, winning three of their first four games. Baker Mayfield was looking like a successful reclamation project, and the defense allowed 17 points or fewer in all three of those wins.

Since then, Tampa Bay has come crashing back down to reality. The Buccaneers have lost five of their last six games with their lone win over that span having come against the lowly Titans. Tampa Bay is still technically alive for a playoff spot in the NFC South, but they'll need to play much better down the stretch.

Since their Week 5 bye, they’ve had issues on both sides of the ball. Mayfield has taken a step backwards, dipping from 7.46 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) in the first four weeks to just 6.61 AY/A in his last six games. That 6.61 AY/A looks even worse considering that two big performances against the Titans and Texans helped buoy that average.

Nov 19, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

But in spite of Mayfield's recent struggles, the bigger issue has actually been the defense. The Buccaneers relied on forcing turnovers early in the season, having generated at least two takeaways in each of their first four games. Unsurprisingly, their luck has turned a bit since then, as Tampa Bay has only one takeaway or none in five of their past six contests.

Without those turnovers, the defense has been exposed as the second-worst in the league since their bye in EPA allowed per play, so the Buccaneers aren't nearly as good on defense as their season-long numbers might suggest.

On the other side, the Colts have been competitive all season. They’re only 5-5, but two of their losses have come against the Jaguars. Another loss was in overtime against the Rams, and they suffered a one-point defeat against an elite Browns defense. The only real “bad” loss for Indianapolis was an 11-point defeat at home to New Orleans. All in all, the Colts haven't looked terrible.

Nov 12, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew (10) drops back to pass against the New England Patriots in the second quarter during an International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Gardner Minshew is 3-3 in his starts since the Colts lost Anthony Richardson to injury, and he's been an unexciting but capable backup. He obviously doesn’t possess the same elite athleticism as Richardson, who might be the best athlete in the history of the QB position, but Minshew has been a good-enough passer.

Indianapolis currently ranks ninth in points per game and 14th in yards per game, so the offense has been chugging along even with Minshew under center.

Defense has been the bigger issue despite the Colts coming off back-to-back strong showings against the Panthers and Patriots prior to their bye. Holding those offenses at bay is hardly impressive, but then again, it’s not as if Tampa Bay is an offensive juggernaut this week.

The Colts also have the benefit of extra rest coming off the bye, which has historically been a nice benefit for favored squads. Favorites fresh off a bye are 137-112-8 ATS when facing a team on normal rest, which is a good sign for Indianapolis.

While I like the Colts to cover, my favorite play is over 43.5 points. Minshew should fare well against this poor Buccaneers secondary, and Mayfield & Co. should be able to keep pace on the other side.

After all, prior to facing two awful offenses in Carolina and New England, Indianapolis had allowed at 37 or more points in each game the three weeks prior. The Bucs also managed to score 57 total points in their two games before running into the 49ers' buzz saw last week, so both offenses should find success in this spot.