Buccaneers at Falcons 

The Buccaneers clinched the NFC South last week with a comeback win over the Carolina Panthers. The Buccaneers enter this game at 8-8 on the year, but every win has been a legitimate struggle. Last week was just the second time all year that Tom Brady has thrown for three or more TDs in a game and it was also just the second time Tampa scored more than 30 points in a game this season (the other 30+ effort came in a loss). 

The good news for the Buccaneers is that they’ve now clinched a playoff berth and don’t have to stress this week about moving up or down in the seeding. They are locked into the 4th seed as the division winner with the worst record and will play either San Francisco or Minnesota (likely Minnesota as the 49ers play Arizona this week and are -14.0 favorites). So far, head coach Todd Bowles has been adamant about playing starters but if you read between the lines, he’s also clearly leaving himself an out to rest players: 

"No," answered Bowles, when asked if Tampa Bay will rest its regulars. "We can get better at a lot of things, so right now I'm planning on playing them. We'll see as the week goes forward.”

“We’ll see as the week goes forward” means as soon as Tom Brady decides he wants to come off the field, it will happen. 

The Buccaneers are also listed as +4.0 underdogs in this game against a Falcons team that needed a last-second field goal last week to beat the hapless Cardinals, who were starting their third string quarterback. The expectation everywhere is that Tampa will be inserting backup Blaine Gabbert into this game early on and also pulling veterans like Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, and Chris Godwin. 

While the tendency might be to pile on the Falcons in a spot like this, the Buccaneers have a deep roster and Atlanta didn’t even come close to covering this -4.0 spread last week when they were at home against the Cardinals. With Atlanta featuring a defense that has now conceded 4.7 yards per carry against during the last three weeks, look for Rachaad White (if he plays) to potentially pile up yards and carries. Tampa Bay should feature a rush-first game plan, with the idea being to keep this game as short as possible, and as a rookie, White certainly still has a chance to see significant snaps. 

If White were to sit, Ke'Shawn Vaughn could be a great player to target with overs on rush attempts and receptions if we were to get player props for him in those markets. 

On the Atlanta side, we’ll likely get a full game out of quarterback Desmond Ridder, who the Falcons are evaluating for next season. Atlanta is currently projected to have another top-10 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Ridder got his first win last week and completed a solid 73% of his passes. His 6.5 yards per pass attempt leaves a lot to be desired, but with Tampa Bay unlikely to be playing many starters on defense, seeing him and Drake London connect for some big plays downfield won’t be overly shocking. 

London’s towering 6’4” frame is going to be a problem for the Buccaneers’ backups and he’s averaged a stout 10 targets over his last four games. The rookie WR has a projected 80.9 receiving yard total on Fantasy Life, which is currently eighth among all receivers on the site. The model is obviously bullish on a big game for him in the season finale.  

Looking at both London and Ridder as over targets in the total yards department this week seems like a fruitful bet to explore when props for this game are released. The Falcons may also decide to pull back Tyler Allgeier’s usage, given that this game is meaningless and he’s had heavy usage the second half of the year. The rookie RB averaged just 3.45 yards per carry against Tampa Bay back in Week 5 and sets up as a potential fade given Atlanta’s deep RB rotation and how little meaning this game has overall. 

Like many games this week, Atlanta versus Tampa Bay will be all about watching player updates and reading between the lines to see which players will be getting snaps. Expect to see Tampa’s starters for a series or two (max) and for Atlanta to also potentially use a heavier rotation at certain positions like RB. 

Ridder and London look somewhat safe for some production but other than that, this game has the potential to be one of the more boring meetings of the week. Don’t be shocked if the current 40.5 game total is under 40.0 by kickoff.