Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

The Buccaneers have everything to play for in Week 18. They stumbled last week, suffering a 10-point loss at home to the Saints, but they’re still in control of their own destiny. If Tampa Bay can take care of business with a win over Carolina, a team with just two wins this season, they will secure the NFC South crown.

Additionally, the Buccaneers are technically still alive for a Wild Card playoff spot, though those odds are a lot longer. They would need a tie against the Panthers combined with a loss from the Seahawks and a loss or tie from the Packers.

When Tampa Bay has been at their best this season, it’s been behind strong play from Baker Mayfield. He entered the year as an afterthought but has officially cemented his status as an NFL-caliber QB and potentially the Buccaneers' starter in 2024 as well.

Dec 31, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) drops back to pass against the New Orleans Saints in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Mayfield currently ranks 10th among qualifying QBs in EPA + CPOE this season, and he’s ninth in adjusted yards per attempt. With a pair of stud WRs in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Mayfield looks like a viable successor to Tom Brady in Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers' defense has been a bigger question mark. They’ve held up against the run this season, ranking sixth in rushing EPA allowed defensively, but they’ve been pretty thoroughly dissected by opposing QBs. Tampa Bay currently ranks only 25th in dropback EPA allowed, and they were missing pass-rusher Shaq Barrett in their last game. It was his first missed game in 2023, and while Barrett hasn’t been as dominant this season as in previous years, his status will be crucial for this week's divisional showdown against the Panthers.

Fortunately, Carolina isn't well-equipped to take advantage of the Buccaneers' biggest weakness, as the Panther's passing offense has basically been a disaster in Bryce Young’s rookie season.

Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) throws the ball during the first quarter of a regular season NFL football matchup Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars blanked the Carolina Panthers 26-0. Photo Credit: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

Young did provide a glimmer of hope in Week 16 with 312 passing yards and two TDs in a tight three-point loss to the Packers, but he came crashing back down to reality last week. The Panthers were shut out by a struggling Jaguars defense, and Young managed just 2.09 adjusted yards per attempt.

The Panthers have already clinched the worst record in the NFL, but that’s not going to do them any good in the upcoming draft. They traded their 2024 first-round pick to the Bears in order to acquire Young, so that trade has the potential to go down as a disaster. Carolina will at least get to pick first in the other rounds, but this team doesn’t have a ton of hope at the moment.

It’s hard to imagine the Panthers having a ton of motivation in the final game of the year. They’re not just going to roll over and die since they're still professional athletes, but Carolina is going to be more focused on the future than the present.

While teams in “must-win” spots tend to become overvalued from a betting perspective, it’s impossible to trust the Panthers at this point. They’re an NFL-worst 4-10-2 ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of more than 10 points per game. The Massey-Peabody Power Ratings have the Buccaneers as nearly eight points better than the Panthers on a neutral field, so laying five points on the road seems completely acceptable.