Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans

Coaching matters.

I think that’s the jumping-off point for this game. Because without it, we’d fall into biases regarding our evaluation for either offense.

Like, take the Bucs’ passing game. We didn’t know Baker Mayfield was going to be the starter until late August. And all Baker, former Heisman winner and first-overall pick, had to do was beat out Kyle Trask (non-Heisman winner, non-first-overall pick). 

But Mayfield’s 0.02 EPA per dropback ranks right behind Lamar Jackson’s at 14th amongst all QBs. Baker has thrown more passing TDs (10) than Lamar, Geno Smith, and Trevor Lawrence. So, OC Dave Canales has to be doing something right. 

And if OC Bobby Slowik isn’t (prematurely) put in the head coaching discussion for 2024, I don’t know what we’re doing. C.J. Stroud’s 45.2% success rate leads his class and outpaces veteran QBs with clear upgrades at WR (Russell Wilson – 42.9%, Kenny Pickett – 38.2%, Zach Wilson – 36.9%). So, while the game sets up to be a dud (40-point total), there’s still much we can learn about each offense from a fantasy standpoint.

On Tampa Bay’s side, Mayfield’s knee contusion may be the cause for his dip in play. I mean, sure, it’s Mayfield, and most (including myself) expected him to regress to what we’ve seen over the last two years. But since the injury came up in Week 7, there’s been a noticeable shift in his play:

• Pressure-to-Sack Ratio: 8.2% (Weeks 1-6), 17.1.% (Weeks 7 and 8)
• Play Action Rate: 29.7%, 13.5%
• Designed Run Rate: 5.2%, 2.1%

Canales built the offense around Baker’s strengths: getting out of the pocket and firing outside of the numbers. But he can’t if he’s hobbling around in the pocket. And when asked to be a straight dropback passer, well, we’ve seen how that story ends. Plus, the injury may also be a factor in how he has distributed his attempts as of late.

Dec 5, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) makes a catch against Atlanta Falcons safety Richie Grant (27) during the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Chris Godwin now leads the crew with a 23.8% target share. Mike Evans, with his 14.0 aDOT, has fallen to a 17.5% share after opening the season at 31.5%. But if Mayfield regains any of his earlier-season form, I’d expect a return of the downfield shots to Evans.

For Houston, what an amazing turnaround. I know we’re only at the halfway mark of the season. And the bar of “just don’t be bad” was set so low. But to be 12th in average yards per drive after being dead last in 2022 has to be acknowledged.

And it’s due to the Slowik-Stroud connection. Stroud showed the ability to diagnose defenses early in the season and it’s kept the Texans moving the ball all year. In fact, Stroud has the highest TD-INT ratio of any QB through eight weeks of their rookie season in TruMedia’s database (goes back to 2000). And primarily, his attempts have gone to just a few people.

Nico Collins sits at the head of the table with a 21.6% target share. The third-year receiver works as the Texans’ X-receiver with the lowest slot rate and 32.0% of the team’s air yards. But rookie Tank Dell has worked behind Collins as veteran Robert Woods continues to deal with a foot injury. Dell and Noah Brown (slot receiver) stand the most to gain in Woods’ absence, but Dell’s penchant for earning targets downfield give him the edge as the more valuable fantasy asset. However, there’s a larger problem for fantasy managers to figure out.

Dameon Pierce is still the Texans’ starter, but Devin Singletary keeps showing up on the field when we’re expecting production from Pierce. We expected a passing-down role for the former Buffalo RB, but his involvement in short-yardage scenarios takes even more away from a rusher heavily reliant on volume. 

Pierce was already a mid-range RB2 prior to Singletary clawing his way into the picture. Now, both fall into the RB3 abyss with the hope one (preferably Pierce) falls into the end zone.