Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Can the Cardinals do it again? They took the field as double-digit underdogs against the Cowboys in Week 3, and not only did they cover, but Arizona won the game outright in a huge upset.

The win pushed the Cardinals to a perfect 3-0 ATS for the year, so they’ve been far more competitive than most people expected. Although Arizona has managed just one actual win over that time frame, they’ve been far from the train wreck most expected them to be heading into the season.

Now, they’ll have to take the field as massive underdogs once again. This time, the Cardinals are on the road at San Francisco taking on arguably the best team in football. The 49ers are a perfect 3-0 on the year, and all three of their victories have come in a convincing fashion. If not for Sean McVay choosing to kick a field goal as time expired in Week 2, all three of their victories would’ve been by double digits.

Brock Purdy has yet to lose a game where he started and finished as the team’s QB. He was also 7-0 in that scenario in 2022 (including playoffs), bringing him to 10-0 overall.

Sep 17, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass in the first half against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Purdy isn’t doing anything particularly special, but he's been effective at getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers, which is one of the most exciting groups in the league. Even without Brandon Aiyuk last week against the Giants, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle are enough to keep most defensive coordinators up at night.

There’s no arguing that Purdy’s play style has been effective. He’s second in EPA + CPOE composite despite ranking just 20th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade. There are plenty of players who could succeed in Purdy’s shoes, but right now, he’s the guy who gets to live the dream.

San Francisco's embarrassment of riches extends past the offense to the defense as well. The 49ers' defense is on pace to be elite once again this season, currently ranking fourth in the league in EPA allowed per play. They also rank first overall in defensive grade per PFF, ranking sixth against the run, first in pass rush, and fourth in coverage.

The 49ers have yet to face a real test this season, though, having run over struggling Steelers, Rams, and Giants squads in the first three weeks. Eventually, we’re going to see if this San Francisco team can dominate against high-level competition, but that won’t happen in Week 4.

Even though the Cardinals have been better than expected, they’re still far from good. Arizona has made the most out of a bad situation with Joshua Dobbs, who looks like he has a future as an NFL backup or bridge starter, but this team is still playing for the future.

The Cardinals have two first-round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft (their own and that of the Texans), and the goal has always been to land a future franchise player or two next April. That means it would behoove Arizona to lose games.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs (9) throws the ball against the Dallas Cowboys at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Set. 24, 2023. Photo Credit: Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

“Tanking” is a word that gets thrown around a lot in sports. While I firmly believe that some front offices do try to tank, I don’t think that players and coaches are in on it. Guys like Dobbs, James Conner, and Marquise Brown aren’t going to throw games, even if the front office doesn’t really care about winning.

So, the question remains: can the Cardinals cover the spread once again and stay perfect on the season ATS?

Two TDs is a lot of points in the NFL. Underdogs of at least 14 points have been profitable since 2005, posting a record of 79-73-5 ATS. That includes a mark of 6-3 ATS last season.

From a pure math standpoint, I think that this week’s spread is a lot more defensible than last week’s. Essentially, the Cowboys being favored by 12.5 points in Arizona meant that they were 14 points better than the Cardinals on a neutral field, which felt like a stretch.

This week’s number suggests that the 49ers are roughly 12.5 points better than the Cardinals, which feels much more reasonable.

Ultimately, it wouldn’t shock me if the sharps are on San Francisco in this spot. We’ve already seen some early sharp money come in on the 49ers, so I think that this line could conceivably get even higher. I don't feel strongly enough about this game to actually bet on San Francisco -14, but I do think that they’re the correct side.