Cardinals at Broncos (-2.5) – 36.5 total 

This game is what NFL betting was invented for. There is literally nothing at stake this week in the Broncos-Cardinals matchup other than pride. From a narrative perspective, Arizona will likely not mind losing this game as it will help move them up in the draft. Denver, on the other hand, would love to win for optic purposes, given that they’ll be sending their first-rounder to Seattle this year (and next). Whether these narratives will play into the preparation for this game remains to be seen, but it’s at least worth noting that Denver has something to gain by playing for the win this week. 

Arizona’s season was already somewhat of an abject disaster before last week, but losing Kyler Murray to an ACL injury has put a dark cloud around this franchise that may extend into next year. The Cardinals rank just 17th in points per game this season and have averaged just 16.66 points in the three games this year where Murray played less than a full quarter. Their defense hasn’t exactly been awe-inspiring either; opposing quarterbacks are averaging a 99.1 rating against Arizona which is third-worst in the league.

Whether Denver can actually do anything with this matchup is the real question. Their offense has been the joke of the league all season, but they do come into this week off a 28-point effort against Kansas City, their largest output of the season and the first time they’ve scored over 23 points. Picking on Russell Wilson is almost too easy at this point so we’ll take the opposite approach this week and point out that Wilson’s meal preparation the last two weeks has been somewhat serviceable. He posted quarterback ratings of over 100.0 in each of his last two starts and accounted for three TDs against Kansas City, as well as bringing them inside the five yard line to set up the fourth TD of the game, although Wilson left before the score with a concussion. 

Wilson’s status is still up in the air for this game as he remains in the concussion protocol, although Denver news outlets reported that Wilson was taking part in activities at practice on Wednesday. If Wilson can play, this would also be a great time to bet some overs on Greg Dulcich props. The TE leads the Broncos in targets, with 16 over the last two weeks, and the Cardinals coverage in the middle of the field has been awful all season. They come into this week having allowed the most yards, TDs, and receptions to opposing TEs this year. 

On the other side of the ball, Colt McCoy has had googly eyes for DeAndre Hopkins when at the helm, targeting him 12.5 times per game over his three appearances this year. Considering the limited arm strength McCoy has and the failing offensive line – which allowed McCoy to be sacked 6.0 times last week – don’t expect a sudden breakout game for Robby Anderson or Marquise Brown this Sunday, who are likely plotting their offseason trade requests as we speak. 

For betting, a lot of this game hinges on whether Wilson plays or not. Early indications favor him being on the field, which is likely why the line has remained tilted in support of Denver. The Broncos played a tight game with the Jets in Week 7 with backup Brett Rypien at the helm and Denver’s defense – which picked off Patrick Mahomes three times last week – could win this game on its own. Look for this line to climb past 3.0 if Wilson gets confirmed but to stay around pick’em status if he doesn’t, making the Broncos a decent early week bet for Week 15.