Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns 

At this point, the only thing we know about the Cardinals QB situation this week is that it will either be Clayton Tune or Kyler Murray. Head coach Jonathan Gannon stated that Joshua Dobbs will not be starting this week – which was a precursor to him being traded to the Vikings on Tuesday.

If we’re looking at the bigger picture, this would be a pretty terrible spot for your franchise QB (who is not that far removed from an ACL tear) to come back to. Cleveland is the second-rated defense in overall DVOA standings and ranks 6th in pressure rate. There are already rumblings that Tune will start and that makes perfect sense. Tune looked decent in the preseason and went 9 for 12, with a 7.1 ypa mark in his final preseason game against the Vikings, but this is a major step up, test-wise. 

The Cardinals will also be without James Conner for one more game (at least) so expect the backfield to be dominated by Emari Demercado (20-78, 1-1) who had 21 touches last week and had a decent enough showing against one of the best rush defenses in the league. One bright spot for the Cardinals has been their O-Line protection as they have allowed just 17 sacks thus far (13th in the league) – although it’s worth noting that Dobbs’ mobility may have had something to do with that low total.

Oct 9, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marquise Brown (2) celebrates a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Whichever way you slice it, points are going to be hard to come by for Arizona. The Cleveland secondary has plenty of good corners and did well to limit an elite Seahawks receiving core last week. Marquise Brown (6-33) saw his target share and air yards drop against the Ravens and he’ll have another insanely tough matchup to overcome this week. It may be a good time to buy low on him though for season-long fantasy purposes as he’ll get Kyler Murray back after the bye in Week 11 and face a more gettable Atlanta defense. 

Speaking of quarterbacks, the Deshaun Watson (shoulder) saga continues on in Cleveland. Early in the week, it was reported that “progress” was being made by Watson which of course means very little as that was reported last week as well. At this point, there is a good argument that Cleveland is simply better with PJ Walker (248-1-2) who is no world-beater but a solid competitor who made numerous tough throws last week in the face of a fierce pass rush. 

Walker also threw two INTs, though, and if Arizona can keep this game close or stun Cleveland it will be because their defense can make plays. Arizona is far from an elite defense but they are eighth in sacks and have proven somewhat adept at creating turnovers (10 on the season). 

A couple of notes on Cleveland for fantasy and betting purposes.

David Njoku (4-77-1) has come on with Walker at the helm posting a 24% target share and an 85% route rate last week. Hitting Njoku over the middle is an easier throw for Walker who is lacking in arm talent.

Amari Cooper (8-89) remains an elite outlet as well and the only WR on Cleveland worth noting for fantasy, although his upside is still limited with Walker.

In the backfield, Pierre Strong Jr. (10-41, 1-41) had a very solid game and took 28% of the carries last week. His role could increase from here on out and makes sense as a potential waiver add with Jerome Ford banged up. 

I would have expected the line in this game to be closer to 10.0 with Tune expected to start but it remains at 8.0 to 7.5 at most sportsbooks early in the week. Despite Cleveland performing well of late there are concerns on the offensive side of the ball where turnovers have hurt them. I can’t say I’m in a rush to bet on either side of this game but if it were to jump to 10.0 for some reason I’d probably think about taking the Cardinals. Cleveland has played three physical games in a row and if ever there were a spot to letdown/lookahead, this would be it.