Chargers at Broncos

The Broncos come in with slim playoff chances after a last-second loss to the Patriots on Christmas Eve, while the Chargers are simply playing out the string. 

Denver’s poor execution on offense finally caught up with them last week after they couldn’t capitalize on some early opportunities—and failed to convert good field position late in the game as well. Russell Wilson wasn’t terrible as he threw for two TD passes against zero INTs, but he also only averaged 6.43 yards per attempt. Wilson missed his top WR, Courtland Sutton, down the stretch, who left the game early with a concussion and is now questionable for this week. 

If the Broncos don’t have Sutton for Week 17, then expect to see more Brandon Johnson in the Sutton role, who is another big-bodied receiver whom the Broncos relied on early in the year when Jerry Jeudy was injured. Johnson posted a 72% route rate last week and managed 47 yards and a TD on five targets. 

And this is a spot where we’re likely to see a little more passing from Russell Wilson once again. The Chargers rank 27th in success rate per drop back and have allowed 7.8 yards per attempt against over their last three games, the third-worst mark in the league over that span. The Chargers haven’t been great at anything lately; defensively they’re just 21st in EPA per rush, but if they can hold up the Broncos' rushing attack, much like the Patriots did last week, the conservative Broncos offense may have trouble taking advantage of this matchup and again allow a closer game to develop. 

Dec 23, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer (5) is tackled by Buffalo Bills cornerback Cam Lewis (39) and safety Taylor Rapp (20) in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Chargers also showed some life on offense last week, putting up 22 points against the Bills, with QB Easton Stick rushing for the first TD of his career. Stick was no game changer, and he certainly did struggle against the Bills' defense at times—averaging just 6.51 yards per attempt in that game—but he’ll be facing a much better defensive unit this week in Denver, who is just 25th in EPA per dropback. 

Stick made do with a skeleton crew of a receiver room as Keenan Allen missed his second game in a row. It doesn’t make sense for the Chargers to rush Allen back on the field at this point either, especially with Josh Palmer back and rookie Quentin Johnston needing all the reps he can handle. 

Palmer posted a 25% target share, a 100% route rate, and 4 caches for 47 yards on eight targets last week. He should be viewed as the clear top option in the Chargers offense right now and may also continue to benefit from more up-tempo situations in the final two games thanks to a shoddy defense. 

While Palmer’s receiving props may be worth going over on once again (if Allen is ruled out), this game does have ugly written all over it from a watchability perspective. With the game taking place in Denver where winds and cool weather this time of year can hurt passing efficiency, I’d much rather look at the total this week—specifically the under—than the spread (which currently sits at 5.0). 

Despite last week’s game vs. New England breaking to the over, betting unders in Denver has typically yielded long-term success. Since the start of 2020, the under has gone 19-14 in games played in Denver, and the under is an even more efficient 39-27 in games played at Mile High since the start of 2016. 

With this total still sitting at 39.5 at some sportsbooks, the under in this contest makes for an interesting early Week 17 bet.