Chargers at Broncos

The Chargers have seemingly decided to treat this like any other week and by all reports will be playing their starters for the full game. Los Angeles is currently in the five seed but could move down with a loss, so there is some positioning on the line for them this week. The Broncos’ season was done long ago when they decided to bring in Nathaniel Hackett as head coach. 

Despite the failings of the Broncos’ offense this year, this game does have some shootout potential. Denver’s secondary has crumbled hard the last two weeks, allowing an 84% completion rate to Baker Mayfield two weeks ago and three more TDs to Patrick Mahomes last week. They’ve allowed 6.8 yards per pass attempt over their last three games, which is a full yard higher than their season average. 

Denver has been hit particularly hard by running backs over their last few games as well. Jerick McKinnon has scored four times this year as a receiver against the Broncos. making this a potentially great spot for the Chargers to unleash Austin Ekeler in the passing game. Ekeler caught a season high 10 passes against Denver back in Week 6. 

From a receiver standpoint, this could also finally be the game where we see Keenan Allen find the end zone again. Denver’s slot coverage is likely the weakest part of their secondary and Allen has caught TDs in three of his last four games against Denver. He’s seen 57 targets over his last five games and has a projection of 6.89 receptions and 69.2 yards on Fantasy Life this week. 

The other reason this game could fly over the projected 40.0-point total is the fact the Broncos’ offense did show some life last week in their first game free from Nathaniel Hackett. Denver averaged well over 4.6 yards per carry and will face off against a Chargers defense that ranks dead-last in yards per rush attempt against this year. Chase Edmonds is a name to watch for both fantasy purposes and betting, as the former Dolphin and Cardinal moved into a full on split with Latavius Murray last week, playing on over 50% of the snaps for the first time as a Bronco. 

Edmonds averaged 13.0 yards per reception (3 receptions for 39 yards) and 4.86 yards per carry (7 carries for 34 yards) last week and, as the only active Bronco RB under contract for next year, may see a little heavier workload in the season finale. His reception prop this week should be a point of interest against a Chargers defense that has allowed an 89% completion rate to opposing RBs this year. 

One other name to keep an eye on in Denver is TE Albert Okwuegbunam. The new coaching staff was admittedly curious as to why he hadn’t been playing and gave him six targets last week, including one red zone target that went for a TD. With Greg Dulcich now on IR, expect to see Okwuegbunam on the field for at least 50% of the snaps again in Week 18. 

The line and the total of this game are currently sitting at Chargers +2.5 and 40.0 points, so there’s obviously some doubt brewing as to whether Los Angeles actually goes ahead and plays a full four quarters. One thing that seems certain right now, though, is that if these two offenses do go full bore at each other, the skill players available on both sides are capable of blowing that small total out of the water in far less than 60 minutes. Unless we get changing news on the Chargers, going over on the 40.0 total seems like a great play and great way to attack this divisional matchup for Week 18.