Chargers at Colts (+4.5) – 47.0 total 

This game represents one of the few “safe spaces” of the week, as it will be played inside the climate-controlled environment of the RCA Dome. The Colts enter off a horrific meltdown loss to the Vikings, which saw them blow a 33-0 lead and lose 39-36 in OT. Thankfully for bettors, the team still managed to cover the +4.0 spread, but the loss prompted change as Nick Foles was named the starting quarterback for this game on Tuesday. 

While it’s clear the Chargers are the better team right now, laughing off Foles comes with risk. He took an indescribably bad Bears offense last year and gutted out a 25-24 win, and he would have worked with several of the team's budding stars like Alec Pierce and Jelenai Woods in training camp. 

A true pocket passer whose biggest fault is often waiting too long for a play to develop, expect more focused targeting on the RB and slot position this Sunday with Foles. In his last two games with Jacksonville in 2019, Foles targeted Leonard Fournette an outrageous 23 times and fed David Montgomery nine targets in his only start last year with the Bears. 

Both Deon Jackson and Parris Campbell could be great spike week candidates, with Campbell lining up in the slot on 78% of his snaps this year. Jackson should be the preferred passing down back and has been efficient in that area for the Colts, with a 91% conversion rate on targets this season. 

The Chargers secondary will be a concern though, especially for a quarterback who hasn’t made a start in over a year. Despite losing corner J.C. Jackson early in the year, the Chargers have rebounded as a unit in that area, grabbing interceptions in three of their last four games, and they now rank 13th in defensive pass DVOA on the season. 

Targeting Foles for an interception in this game has merit, and the Fantasy Life Projections has him with a 70% probability rate of going over 0.5 INTs on the week. 

The other side of the ball has a budding superstar in Justin Herbert, who has looked fabulous since overcoming an early-season rib injury. Herbert’s efficiency can sometimes wax and wane, but he’s averaged 313.8 passing yards over his last five starts. The Colts’ secondary got exposed last week, allowing Justin Jefferson and KJ Osborn to combine for 22 catches and 280 yards along with two TDs. 

Stephon Gilmore remains one of the league's better defensive backs, but Colts nickel corner Kenny Moore has been atrocious this season. He and outside corner Isaiah Rodgers have both allowed a passer rating of over 117.0 when thrown at in 2022, with Moore also allowing a 70% completion rate on balls thrown in his direction. This should be a great spot for Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer, who both figure to avoid Gilmore most of the game. 

Allen has taken 79% of his snaps from the slot position this year and has converted on 20 of 23 targets thrown his way the last two weeks. He’s projected for heavy usage, including 10.9 targets this week on Fantasy Life. 

The total this week feels like a slight overreaction to what we saw in Minnesota last Saturday. Ultimately, Indianapolis is just 5-9 at hitting overs this year and the Chargers’ improving defense has helped to push their game totals as well to under the last two weeks. A closer, lower scoring affair also makes a Colts cover more likely, and it’s worth noting that Indianapolis (despite being 5-9 ATS overall) are 2-0 ATS as home underdogs this season. 

Having a more competent game manager in Foles should help keep this game close and with the Chargers having won by more than a single score just once this season, the +4.5 on Indianapolis looks more than reasonable as a spread bet this week.