Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

These two teams have been among most disappointing in the NFL this season. The Chargers were widely expected to be playoff contenders, and there were expectations that the Patriots could bounce back in Year 3 of Mac Jones.

However, Los Angeles is on the outside of the playoff race with a 4-7 record, and New England is one of the worst teams in the league.

Let’s start with the Chargers. They have an excellent QB in Justin Herbert, but nothing else on the team seems to work. Their defense, run game, and coaching staff have all let the team down so far in 2023.

Nov 26, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) looks to pass as Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton (14) rushes during the first quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

Herbert is coming off one of his worst games of the season in Week 12, having averaged just 4.36 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) against Baltimore, though it's worth noting that the Ravens have had an elite pass defense all year. Herbert has been excellent for the most part outside of a couple of tough matchups, so it’s easy to give him a pass for that outing.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are an absolute train wreck with no answers at QB. They tried trotting out both Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe under center in Week 12, and neither QB fared well. Jones had a -0.05 AY/A with two INTs while Zappe averaged 0.64 AY/A with one INT. The team managed just seven points against an awful Giants team, and New England even made a bit of history in the process, but not in a good way.

The Giants entered last week as the clear worst team in the league per the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings. New York was considered -11.1 points below average, and even still, the Patriots lost outright as road favorites.

Despite their own struggles, the Chargers aren't in the same tier as the Patriots. Having struggled against Tommy DeVito and Jalin Hyatt last week, it's hard to see New England's defense faring much better against a lethal trio of Herbert, Austin Ekeler, and Keenan Allen this week.

Nov 12, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) makes a catch against Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph (31) )during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Chargers’ offense ranks 11th in yards per game, eighth in points, and 10th in EPA per play. How in the world are the Patriots going to keep up with that unit? They’ve scored 17 points or fewer in nine of 11 games this year, and New England has scored seven points or fewer in four of their games in 2023.

There are two other X-factors to consider in this spot: motivation and the weather.

The Patriots have just two wins on the season, so they might be thinking about tanking. They would have the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft as it currently stands, and moving up to No. 2 or even No. 1 overall would greatly increase their chances of landing a franchise QB. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye stand out as the clear top-two prospects, so upgrading their already-early draft pick would be ideal for a team that desperately needs a reset at QB.

As far as the weather goes, the current forecast doesn’t look terrible for New England in December. Still, that could always change as we get closer to kickoff.

Ultimately, the under looks like the best way to attack this contest. I highlighted the under in this contest in my Early Lines piece, and the game total has already dipped from 42.0 points to 40.5 points. Plus, 96% of the early action has landed on the under per the Action Network, so the total should only continue to drop. Grab the under ASAP before it potentially dips below 40 points.