Chargers at Raiders (+1.5) – 50.5 total

The Chargers and Raiders are both coming into this game off dramatic Week 12 wins. Los Angeles kept their playoff hopes alive with a one-point victory over the Cardinals, while the Raiders won their second game in a row with a dramatic walk-off win in overtime over the Seahawks. 

This hasn’t been a banner season for either of these clubs and a big portion of the blame can be placed at the feet of the defenses. The Chargers remain one of the easiest teams to rush against in the league, allowing a league worst 5.4 yards per carry on the season. It’s a disgustingly good matchup for Josh Jacobs, who is coming off one of the best individual performances of the last decade after he registered 303 all-purpose yards and two TDs against the Seahawks. Jacobs is nursing a calf strain – suffered in that high usage win – and his status needs to be monitored all the way up to kick-off this week. If he can’t go that would potentially loosen up the Chargers pass rush to go after Derek Carr, who threw three INTs vs. Los Angeles in Week 1 of this season. 

The Chargers secondary hasn’t been great, but they also haven’t allowed a WR to go for over 100 yards against them since Davante Adams beat them for 141 yards on 10 receptions back in Week 1. Jacobs’ status here feels uber-important, as the Chargers have been attempting to mask a poor rush defense all year but won’t be under as much pressure if Jacobs is inactive or limited. In games where Josh Jacobs has received 17 or fewer carries in 2022, the Raiders have scored an average of just 15.25 points. 

On the other side of the ball, expect Justin Herbert to improve on his excellent career stats against the Raiders. In five career games against Las Vegas, he’s averaging 304.5 yards and 2.6 passing TDs per game. Vegas’ pass rush remains one of the worst in the league, as they’re third-last in overall sacks per game (1.5) and have the sixth-worst QB pressure rate. Herbert was able to complete over 70% of his passes last week for just the third time this season and it’s noteworthy that all of those games came when Keenan Allen was healthy and in the starting lineup. Allen will be playing for the third straight week and has yet to experience a setback on his early-season hamstring injury. Taking the over on some Herbert passing props when the lines drop feels like a good way to start the week. 

One final note for betting: the second in-season meeting between these two teams has tended to be of the shootout variety lately. In 2020, the Chargers and Raiders combined for 57 points in their second matchup of that season in Week 15, and they also went off for 67 points in their Week 18 meeting last year. It’s worth noting, as the total feels likely to move upwards as the week progresses and could end up closing closer to 53 than 50. 

Despite the big total, chasing the over here is likely only prudent if we get solid news on Jacobs later in the week. The Chargers offense should be in a good spot to roll regardless, and Los Angeles feels like the side to roll with for betting too, especially if Jacobs is limited or out.