Chiefs at Bengals (+2.5) – 52.5 total

As far as marquee matchups go, it doesn’t get better than this. Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes aren’t just two of the best QBs in the game, they’re also set to be the face of the NFL for the next decade. Their respective teams have been the representatives for the AFC in each of the last three years and have combined for 38 regular season wins since the start of the 2021 NFL season. 

The Bengals come in as one of the hottest teams in the league. They’re 5-1 over their last six games and outside of one off night against Cleveland – where they allowed Burrow to be sacked five times – their O-line has been much improved in 2022. The Bengals have allowed an average of just 1.7 sacks over their last three outings and that’s allowed their passing game to take flight. Since the beginning of 2021, Burrow leads the league in yards per attempt, passer rating, and completion percentage when the Bengals offensive line has given him over 2.5 seconds of sustained blocking.

Cincinnati will also be getting Ja’Marr Chase back for this game, which is going to create a whole lot of issues for Kansas City if they can’t get pressure. The Chiefs have allowed the most TDs to opposing WRs this year (15) and 12.1 yards per reception to the position as well. Chase and Tee Higgins combined for 13.0 yards per catch in the playoffs against Kansas City last year and Higgins – who has averaged 16.1 yards per catch the last two weeks without Chase around – will be near-impossible to guard on his own. Expect the Chiefs to do all they can to pressure Burrow early but also expect Cincinnati's offensive line to act as a solid neutralizer. An explosive night from Burrow and his top two targets seems likely here. 

On the flip side, with the Bengals approaching top form, expect the pace of this game to push Patrick Mahomes into a ton of dropbacks. Mahomes leads the MVP voting and his season has been impressive given the rotating group of names he’s had to work with at WR. Kadarius Toney (hamstring) hasn’t practiced in over a week and Juju Smith-Schuster notably began the week with a missed practice due to illness. If this game does delve into shootout territory, don’t be shocked if WR Justin Watson – who played on over 80% of the snaps in Week 12 – is on the receiving end of a deep TD. Strangely enough, the 6’ 3”, 215 lbs speedster has been a consistent part of the offense this year and comes in having seen multiple targets in three of his last four games.

Travis Kelce – who went for a 10-95-1 line against Cincinnati in the playoffs last year – will likely get his (as he always does) but it’s notable that the Bengals have improved their coverage against TEs in 2022. They’ve allowed the 15th fewest fantasy points to the position this year after being one of the worst in coverage against the position last year. 

Bottom Line: this game seems unlikely to disappoint. The over has been climbing but it’s for good reason. While Mahomes remains the league trump card, the Bengals have been impressive of late, grabbing multiple wins without their best WR. The fact that Cincinnati is at home and still getting points seems massively disrespectful. Cincinnati is growing in confidence and has a 22-10 ATS record since the start of 2021. They’re a top ATS bet for me this week.