Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

Patrick Mahomes against Josh Allen in the NFL playoffs. It doesn’t get much better than that. The last time these two QBs squared off in the postseason, we were treated to one of the greatest games in NFL history.

The Bills scored what they thought was a go-ahead TD with just 13 seconds left on the clock, which seemed to lock up a trip to the AFC Championship. Of course, Mahomes had other ideas and led the Chiefs into field goal range to push the game to overtime. Kansas City wound up winning the coin toss, and the rest is history. Their ensuing game-winning TD in overtime eventually led to the NFL changing the postseason overtime rules to allow both teams a possession.

Fans will be salivating over the potential for another shootout, but expectations should be tempered. After all, these two teams have met twice in the regular season since then, and while both contests have been decided by four points or fewer, there hasn’t been nearly the same amount of offensive fireworks.

Both teams enter this contest as very different versions of what we saw two years ago.

The Chiefs have taken a big step back offensively in 2023. Mahomes is still the unquestioned best QB in football, but he has less supporting talent on offense than in any previous season in his career. With Tyreek Hill gone and Travis Kelce aging, Kansas City ranked just 11th in EPA per play on offense during the regular season. And after having led the league in both points and yards per game in 2022, they ranked merely 15th and ninth in those categories, respectively, in 2023.

For the first time in Mahomes's impressive young career, there are legit questions about this team’s ability to score points.

Jan 13, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) drops back to pass against the Miami Dolphins during the second half of the 2024 AFC wild card game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Some of those questions were answered in the Wild Card round, though, as the Chiefs put up 26 points against the Dolphins in a frigid game. That said, I’m not reading too heavily into that performance. Miami's defense has been severely depleted by injuries in recent weeks and really had no chance of slowing down Mahomes & Co. With the frozen tundra atmosphere on top of those injuries, the Dolphins couldn't manage any pressure on Mahomes.

That doesn’t figure to be the case this week. The Bills have some defensive injury concerns of their own, but the Chiefs likely won’t survive with as many field goals as they kicked last week. If Kansas City leaves points on the field this week, Allen can punish them with TDs on the other side.

Speaking of Allen, he had another typical “Josh Allen” campaign in 2023: tons of production along with tons of turnovers. Only Sam Howell had more INTs than Allen this season, who finished with a career-worst 18 INTs. However, Allen also accounted for 44 total TDs and nearly 5,000 total yards. The mistakes are unfortunately a part of his game, but he brings enough to the table to overshadow those errors.

That said, Buffalo's offense has looked drastically different since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator in Week 10 following an ugly loss to Denver. From Week 11 onward, the Bills have been far more run-heavy under Brady. In fact, Buffalo has a negative drop back over expectation (DBOE) in five straight games heading into this matchup against the Chiefs, including three games with a -9% or lower DBOE.

Brady has featured James Cook and the run game a lot heavier than his predecessor, and it’s hard to argue against the results. The Bills have now won six straight games with impressive wins over the Chiefs and Cowboys over the last two months.

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) slips tackle by Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Myles Jack (16). Photo Credit: Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

That said, it's worth noting that the Bills' Week 14 win over the Chiefs came in Kansas City while this rematch will be the first time in Mahomes’s career that he’ll be playing a road playoff game. And though Mahomes will be an underdog for one of the few games in his career thus far, he’s unsurprisingly thrived in that role to this point, having gone 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog.

As scary as it is to fade Mahomes here, I do think that the Bills are the correct side. They’re the more complete team, and they’re playing at a higher level at the moment. That could change if the Bills’ injury report is unfavorable, but I’m tentatively interested in the Bills at -2.5 points.

Still, I think the best play here is under 46.5 points. While most will be hoping for another offensive explosion, 2023 data suggests a lean to the under. Not only have the past two games between these teams gone under the current total, but outdoor unders have crushed during the postseason. The weather forecast doesn’t look nearly as bad as it did last week, but it’s still Buffalo in January, so at a minimum, it's going to be very cold.

The Chiefs are also now 13-5 to the under this season, and the Bills are 11-7 to the under in 2023. Don’t be surprised if this game once again has fewer total points scored than expected.