Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

NFL Week 8 features an AFC West rivalry between the Chiefs and Broncos. These two teams met in Kansas City just two weeks ago, and the Chiefs secured an 11-point home victory. That was just enough to cover the 10.5-point spread.

After stumbling in their first contest with Travis Kelce and Chris Jones both unavailable, the Chiefs have since rattled off six straight wins. They’ve covered in five of those contests, propelling them to a 5-2 ATS record on the year.

Kansas City has been a team that wins a lot of games but struggles to cover in recent years, but they’re changing that narrative in 2023. In fact, the Chiefs are tied with five other teams for the best ATS record in the NFL thus far.

A major factor in Kansas City’s improvement ATS has been their defense. For most Patrick Mahomes's young career, the Chiefs' defense has been among the worst in the league. That meant that a backdoor was always open, and even when Kansas City jumped out to big leads, opponents were able to close the gap late in those games.

Oct 12, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) is sacked by Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

That’s no longer the case in 2023. The Chiefs’ defense rates as a good-to-elite unit in virtually every metric through seven weeks.

Kansas City currently ranks second in points allowed per game and seventh in yards allowed per game, and they’re sixth in EPA allowed per play. The Chiefs are still a bit vulnerable on the ground, but they make up for it with one of the best pass defenses in football. Only the Browns have a better success rate against passes this season, and only the Browns and Ravens have been better in EPA allowed per dropback.

The Chiefs’ blossoming defense helps make up for any slippage from the offense, which hasn't been quite as dominant as they have been in recent seasons. And while Kansas City's offense hasn't been as explosive in 2023, they still rank sixth in scoring and second in yardage, and Mahomes is the current favorite to pick up his third MVP award in just his sixth season as a starter.

On the other side, the Broncos picked up a much-needed win last week against the Packers, bringing them to 2-5 on the year.

Despite their poor record, there have been some positives in new head coach Sean Payton’s first season. The biggest is the return to prominence of Russell Wilson. Wilson turned in the worst season of his career in 2022, but he’s been much-improved in 2023. The veteran QB has averaged 7.4 adjusted yards per attempt through seven weeks, and he’s currently seventh among QBs in EPA + CPOE composite.

Oct 22, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) passes under pressure from Green Bay Packers linebacker Rashan Gary (52) in the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

However, a big problem is that Denver has fallen from one of the best defensive teams in football over the first half of last season to potentially the worst defensive team in football this year.

The Broncos currently rank dead last in yards allowed per game and 31st in points allowed per game, and they’re dead last in EPA allowed per play. Part of that stems from the Dolphins' 70-point, 726-yard outburst against them in Week 3, but it’s not as if Denver's defense has been particularly impressive in their other contests, either.

Although the Broncos will have the benefit of home-field advantage on Sunday, that edge hasn’t been worth much recently. Denver is just 3-7 ATS at home with Wilson at QB, and they're just 1-3 ATS at home thus far in 2023.

Still, the sharps seem to like the Broncos in this spot. Denver has unsurprisingly received just 38% of the early spread bets, but those bets have accounted for 94% of the dollars per the Action Network. That’s a massive discrepancy, and it explains why this number has dipped from Chiefs -8.5 to Chiefs -7.5 over the past few days.

I never like to go against the sharps, but I can’t bring myself to bet on Denver in this matchup. Kansas City seems like a different team this season with their improved defense, so the days of them being a poor ATS squad could be in the rear-view mirror.