Chiefs at Packers

Jordan Love is dealing. Over his last three games, the Packers QB has thrown for seven TDs vs two INTs and ended his day against Detroit averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and completing 68% of his passes. 

This week, however, will be a tougher test. The Chiefs defense has emerged as one of the best units in the league in 2023 and rates out 8th in overall defensive DVOA. They’ve also allowed just 5.6 yards per attempt this season and rank first in pressure rate and fourth in sacks as a unit. For Green Bay, protecting Love will be key, and the Packers QB and his O-line have done a solid job of limiting the losses of late, allowing just 1.3 sacks to be taken over that span. 

Love will also need more help from his receivers. Christian Watson finally emerged from his mid-season slumber to slam the Lions' weaker secondary for a 5-94-1 line. Watson’s big play ability is undeniable, but it will be a much tougher go against the Chiefs' dominant outside corners, who have only allowed 5.6 yards per attempt this year. 

This might be a better spot for Love to utilize slot man Jayden Reed anyways. The Chiefs have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to slot receivers on the season, and Reed has emerged as an almost Deebo Samuel-like weapon for the Packers—a player who can hurt opposing teams with his speed on short passes near the line of scrimmage. Reed now has five TDs on the season, and his seven catches of 30 or more yards ranks among the leaders in the NFL in 2023. 

Reed not only makes for a solid fantasy start this week, but his prop totals and alternate line odds are worth monitoring as well once released. 

Nov 26, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) celebrates with tight end Travis Kelce (87) after a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

As for the Chiefs, there was undoubtedly a small sigh of relief in their building after their passing game finally had a small breakout against the Raiders. Patrick Mahomes had one of his most efficient days of the season, completing 79% of his passes for 8.8 yards per attempt, and saw rookie Rashee Rice emerge as a true go-to receiver after he posted a 8-107-1 line in the comeback win. 

Despite the good vibes they have entering Week 13, the Packers are a tough matchup. Green Bay is above average in yards per attempt against and has allowed just one passer to throw for more than 300 yards against them this season—and that was Jared Goff last week, who gained most of his yards while Green Bay was up two scores. 

Green Bay will also likely get back top corner Jaire Alexander for this game, who finally returned to practice this week. Where the Chiefs can feel good attacking is on the ground, and seeing RB Isiah Pacheco go for his second big game in a row would not be shocking. The Packers have allowed 5.4 yards per carry against the last three weeks (second-worst in the league) and have generally been a great matchup for opposing RBs (10th most fantasy points per game allowed to RBs). 

This game has a lot more intrigue now than it would have had a few weeks ago. The Packers have a lot of emerging weapons and may be getting a key defensive player back as well. Certainly the Chiefs deserve to be favored, but this line has already crept down from 7.0 to 6.5 / 6.0 and may fall further prior to kickoff now that it is under 7.0. 

The weather in Green Bay may also lend itself to a lower scoring game with the potential for a combo of rain and snow to fall during the game. The under on the 42.5 total is a bet a couple of us have already made this week in the Free Fantasy Life bet tracker, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see this number shrink a bit before kickoff either.