Chiefs at Raiders

The Chiefs still have everything left to play for heading into their final game of the year. They have already clinched the AFC West for the seventh straight year, and they’ll be making their eighth straight trip to the playoffs. However, they still have a chance for the No. 1 seed. They need to win their final game to have any shot of that happening, and they would need some additional help from the Bills. There is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding the schedule in Buffalo following last week’s tragic situation with Damar Hamlin. The entire world was shaken up – not just the NFL – so it’s completely understandable if football is the furthest thing from the players’ minds at this point. That said, the Bills would finish with the No. 1 seed if they play and win their final two contests.

The Chiefs should at least begin Week 18 with their starters on the field, including presumed MVP Patrick Mahomes. He’s down to -750 to win the award, and he’s had another phenomenal season. He leads the league in both touchdown passes and touchdown rate, and his average of 315.5 passing yards per game also ranks first in the league. Mahomes has also earned the top mark at the position per Pro Football Focus, so it’s pretty hard to knock his credentials.

While he’s on the field, he should have no problem moving the football against the Raiders. They rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, and Mahomes has historically torched the Raiders. He has 11 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in their past three matchups, and he owns a 113.1 Quarterback Rating versus the Raiders for his career.

You wouldn’t expect the Raiders to keep up in this matchup, especially without starting quarterback Derek Carr. However, the team made a major statement last week against the 49ers. They racked up 500 yards of total offense and 34 points in a narrow overtime victory.

That game served as a coming out party for Jarrett Stidham. Stidham was not impressive in limited playing time as a backup in New England, but he had a phenomenal performance against arguably the best defense in football. He racked up 365 yards and three touchdowns, resulting in an average of 9.85 adjusted yards per attempt. Stidham did throw two interceptions, but he ultimately did enough to put his team in a position to win.

Can he do it again this week? The Chiefs are certainly a much easier matchup, and the sharps have shown some interest in the Raiders. They’ve received nearly 90% of the spread dollars as of Wednesday evening, so the pros believe that Stidham and the Raiders can cover this number.

The Chiefs also have a dubious track record as a large favorite. Mahomes is just 12-19-1 against the spread when laying more than a touchdown, including a mark of 1-8 on the road.