Chiefs at Ravens 

The Kansas City Chiefs face off against the Baltimore Ravens this Sunday in the AFC Championship. 

This game will mark the sixth consecutive season that the Chiefs have reached the AFC title game with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid as QB/head coach. The Chiefs come into this game relatively healthy. G Joe Thuney is the big name to watch after he suffered a pectoral injury last week. Thuney seems to have avoided a major injury, but his availability is up in the air for this Sunday, and he also may not be 100% if he plays. It could lead to Patrick Mahomes dealing with more pressure than he did last week against the Bills, who failed to sack him in the divisional round. 

Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws the ball against the Buffalo Bills in the second half of the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

In terms of injuries, the Ravens really only have two names to watch (as of now). The first is TE Mark Andrews (ankle), who returned to practice last week but wasn’t activated for the game. The extra week of rest is expected to give Andrews enough time to be ready, but we won’t really know for sure until later in the week. CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) hasn’t practiced at all since injuring his calf against Miami and seems like he could be a longshot to play this week. HC John Harbaugh said both had “a chance to play.” 

The Chiefs' game plan this week will likely be similar to what they employed against the Bills. Kansas City employed 12 and 13 man formations (2 and 3 TE sets) for a majority of the game vs Buffalo, and it was the heaviest TE usage we have seen from them all year. That not only allowed them to run the ball better with Isiah Pacheco (15-87-1), but it also led to Travis Kelce (5-75-2) getting loose more often and even Noah Gray (3-16) contributing with three catches. 

Gray is an interesting prospect in the anytime TD and receptions market this week as he played over 60% of the snaps last week. He’s currently as big as +1000 at some sportsbooks for an anytime TD, and his receiving prop is still just at 9.5 yards. Given the Ravens have been stellar at limiting big plays to opposing WRs (1st in yards per attempt in the regular season), it wouldn’t be shocking to see a decent day develop again for the Chiefs' RBs and TEs while Rashee Rice puts in another slower day. 

As for the Ravens, they have to be salivating at the prospect of running the ball against this Chiefs defense. The Bills ran up 173 yards against them last week and had a 61% success rate while doing so. Baltimore has their own lethal runner in Lamar Jackson but will likely also employ a lot of Gus Edwards in this spot to attack the middle of the Chiefs' line that Josh Allen and James Cook raked against last week. 

As we saw last week, now that the playoffs are here, the Ravens don’t seem to be overly concerned with limiting Jackson’s usage on the ground. He took 11 carries last week, including multiple red zone rushes that led to two TDs. Those TDs could easily shift back to Edwards this week (who led all RBs in carries inside the 5-yard line this year), but both men will be key figures for the Ravens when they get near KC’s goal line. 

Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Gus Edwards (35) runs the ball against the Houston Texans during the second quarter of a 2024 AFC divisional round game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Ravens may have to pass the ball a little bit more this week than they did last week, especially if the Chiefs' offense keeps rolling, but throwing the ball more than 30 times likely isn’t in their best interests. The Chiefs have a great pass rush and equally as good a secondary as Baltimore, which held opposing QBs to just a 60% completion rate this season. 

Ultimately, if you’re playing for a Ravens win, fading or going under on Jackson’s passing and completion props is something to consider for same game parlays. If you’re playing for a Chiefs win, an over on Jackson’s attempts would correlate better. 

In terms of game betting, the spread this week has now moved across 3.0 to 3.5 with some potential 4.0s showing now as well. While Baltimore has been the better team all year, I’d still be inclined to take the points with Kansas City at anything better than a FG. The Chiefs' defense is a concern, but it was last week as well, and their new look offense allowed them to outgun a Bills team that had been unstoppable over the last five weeks. 

With Kansas City changing styles and perhaps avoiding the Baltimore corners and safeties a little more (aka the strength of their defense), it seems likely Mahomes manages to bully his way into another close game and get the cover.