Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings

Weird. It’s the only word I can think of to describe this game.

To explain my confusion, let me rattle off some stats about Patrick Mahomes:

• At 0.16 expected points added (EPA) per dropback, Mahomes is just ahead of Baker Mayfield. At this point last year, he was first (0.30).
• Mahomes is 21st (no, not a typo) in CPOE. He’s currently behind Justin Fields and Daniel Jones.
• In Week 4, he threw more INTs (2) than TDs (1) for the first time since 2021

At the same time, the Vikings look like they used all their luck last season. They have the third-most fumbles of any team (8) but have only recovered one. Kirk Cousins has the second-lowest rate of turnover-worthy plays per PFF (1.7%). However, he ranks sixth in total interceptions (4). 

If this were 2022, fantasy managers would have this contest circled on their calendars. But after four weeks of play, it doesn’t look as straightforward as we may have thought coming into the season.

For Kansas City, their funk is likely a confluence of multiple factors. The loss of OC Eric Bienemy has been Washington’s gain, as the Commanders are at least battling within the NFC East. Travis Kelce’s injury and slow start (TE7 behind Hunter Henry) certainly don’t help. And Mahomes has to get in sync with yet another batch of receivers.

Dec 12, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates after a first down against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

In 2022, No. 15 threw a pass to 11 different receivers over the first month of the season. Five of them had double-digit targets. Those same numbers are up to 13 and seven, respectively. He’s throwing to more people more often. However, they’re not exactly ready for prime time.

Of Mahomes’ options with ten or more targets, Rashee Rice (Day 2 rookie pick) stands out. He’s 13th in yards per route run (2.5) with more YAC per reception than CeeDee Lamb. The only problem is he has fewer air yards per target than Allen Robinson. And after Rice, it doesn’t get much better. But Kelce could carry the crew on his own.

Keenan Allen (20-215-0) destroyed the Vikings’ interior coverage, with 106 of his yards coming from the slot. Besides Rice, Kelce has the highest target rate on inside routes, and he already has two scores from this alignment. Between Kelce and Isiah Pacheco, after D’Andre Swift trounced Minnesota for 175 yards on the ground, Mahomes may have another pedestrian statline. But the Vikings’ offense might be able to answer back.

Let’s see if you can guess which receiver archetype has the best chance of succeeding against Kansas City’s secondary:

• Christian Kirk, 14-110-0
• Amon-Ra St. Brown, 9-71-1
• DJ Moore, 6-41-1

Luckily, Justin Jefferson has the most targets from the slot while maintaining a 30.7% overall target share. Last year’s WR1 still has a hold on the title, and the Chiefs will have their hands full, keeping Jefferson in check. But starting JJettas in fantasy isn’t a question fantasy managers have.

Start Alexander Mattison? That’s a question worth asking.

At RB21 in PPR leagues, fantasy managers should fire him up for Week 5. But his future as the Vikings primary rusher may be uncertain. In Cam Akers first game with Minnesota, he took on 21.7% of the carries and ran a route on 28.5% of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks. 

Ty Chandler never hit those marks. And Akers was more efficient than Mattison in his limited role. 

Only David Montgomery has scored on the ground against the Chiefs. And since that Week 1 bout, Kansas City has allowed just seven rushing first downs. If Mattison continues to struggle, Akers might see more work. But in what projects to be a high-scoring affair (52.5-point total), Mattison should be in our lineups for one more week.