Colts at Cowboys (-10.5) – 44.5 total

Are the Cowboys the best team in the NFC? It’s definitely possible. They check every box that you’re looking for in a Super Bowl contender.

It starts with their ferocious defense. They rank second in the league in points per game allowed and seventh in yards per game allowed, and they’re first in defensive DVOA. They boast arguably the best pass-rush in football, spearheaded by super-stud Micah Parsons. He has 12 sacks in 11 games this season, despite not playing as a traditional pass-rusher for the entire game. He won the Defensive Rookie of the Year last year, and he’s expected to add a Defensive Player of the Year trophy to his mantle this year. 

Their offensive numbers aren’t quite as impressive, but it’s important to remember that Cooper Rush started five games for them. Since Dak Prescott has returned to the lineup, the team has rattled off at least 24 points in five straight games. They’ve gone for at least 40 points in two of them, so this team has the potential to light up the scoreboard when they need to.

On the other side, the Colts have had a tumultuous season. The offseason addition of Matt Ryan has not solved their quarterback problem, and the team will almost certainly have another new starter next year. Hiring Jeff Saturday as the interim head coach gave the team a bit of life, but they came crashing back to reality last week versus the Steelers. They managed just 290 yards of total offense and suffered a seven-point home loss.

This is obviously a lot of points, but there are reasons to believe the Cowboys can cover. For starters, Prescott has historically been one of the best quarterbacks in the league against inferior competition. He owns a record of 23-9-2 against the spread facing teams with a sub-.500 record, making him the second most profitable QB in that split. The only QB with a better ATS record against losing teams is Tom Brady, and if I remember correctly, that guy is pretty good at football.

The Cowboys also have the rest advantage in this spot. They’ve had a bit of extra time off after playing on Thanksgiving, while the Colts are on shorter rest than usual after playing on Monday Night Football. That hasn’t historically had a huge impact, but with there already being such a gulf in talent between these two squads, it could matter.