Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Game Preview

The Patriots' season all but ended last week against the Commanders—and in reality, was over long before that. They now sit at 2-7 and are last in the AFC standings. Despite that, the line in this game against the Colts has the Patriots as just +1.5 underdogs, so either there is still too much respect being thrown the Patriots' way or the Colts are just not a team the market necessarily trusts yet, even against a weak team like New England. 

Indianapolis had arguably its best win of the season last week, as they sacked Bryce Young four times, got a defensive TD, and beat the Panthers by multiple scores. While Gardner Minshew had put up some terrific fantasy numbers for Indianapolis in prior weeks, the fact he only needed to throw the ball 26 times was a huge net positive for them from a win perspective, as he managed to finish without a turnover for the first time in four weeks. 

Outside of turnovers, the Colts got another decent day of production from Jonathan Taylor, who only managed 48 yards on 17 carries but found the end zone as a receiver. The Patriots' rush defense is another tough matchup for Taylor (they’re second in yards per carry against) but they have allowed the eighth-most rushing TDs against and the fifth-most receptions to opposing RBs. Last week, the Commanders, who rate out with a similar run game to the Colts, managed to grind out 96 yards on 24 carries, which was enough to salt the game away and secure the close win. 

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) celebrates a touchdown Sunday, Nov. 5, 2023, during a game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Credit: Jenna Watson/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

To make matters worse for New England, they’ve also allowed an average of 324.5 yards passing over their last two games. It’s one thing to allow Tua Tagovailoa and Miami to pick you apart, but to allow Sam Howell and the Commanders to post similar stats is another thing. 

One injury note for Indianapolis: they may be down Josh Downs (knee) for this game as well. In his absence last week Isaiah Mackenzie stepped up with a 61% route rate, catching 2 passes. Michael Pittman (29% target share) remains the big dog for the Colts, but this could be a spot where we finally see Alec Pierce step up to post some production with Downs out. He’s got a 93% route rate on the season but hasn’t caught more than three passes in a game yet—and has only gone over 50 yards once. 

With their defense showing some holes, the Patriots will likely need to do what they hasn’t been able to do all season—which is score points. New England has scored more than 20 points in a game just once since Week 2 and that came against a banged up Bills team. Mac Jones had a pitiful day from an efficiency standpoint, finishing with 220 yards on 45 attempts (5.0 yards per attempt, 54% completion rate), against one of the worst passing defenses in the league in Washington. 

The Colts haven’t been world beaters on defense for much of the season, but they showed some teeth last week and will be up against a Patriots team devoid of talent at WR. When Demario Douglas (5-51) and Juju Smith-Schuster (6-55) are your team's leading receivers, it’s not a recipe for a big day of offense. 

Rhamondre Stevenson (9-87-1, 4-42) had his best game of the season last week, and if the Patriots are able to keep this game close it will likely be on his back. Indianapolis has a solid defensive line that limited the Panthers to 4.2 yards per carry last week, but they have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to the RB position. He’ll be a good target for PPR fantasy formats, and his receiving props, although likely elevated after last week, will certainly make for good over targets once again. 

I’m surprised at this line. The Colts may have lost three games in a row, but they were all against quality opponents and they kept things close in all but one of those games. Their defense stepped up last week and should get more opportunities to make plays against another turnover-prone QB. The Colts under a FG looks like a solid target for Week 10.