Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens

The injury reports for both teams will be important to watch this week.

The Colts lost Anthony Richardson (concussion - questionable) early in their Week 2 win against the Texans, and the first rumblings have him likely to miss this game against Baltimore.

It wouldn’t be an overly shocking move by the Colts to play it safe with their rookie QB, and most players who suffer a concussion usually end up missing at least one week. 

The good news for the Colts is that Gardner Minshew (171-1-0) was excellent in relief of Richardson and is very comfortable in Shane Steichen’s system from his days with the Eagles. This is a different test obviously, and he won’t be gifted a two-score lead this week before playing, but Minshew is still one of the better backups in the league. 

He’ll also face a Ravens secondary that remains extremely banged up with S Marcus Williams (out) and CB Marlon Humphrey seemingly on the wrong side of 50/50 to suit up for this game. 

Humphrey being out could open things up even more for Michael Pittman (8-56-0), who may benefit from having a more traditional pocket passer under center in Minshew.

Pittman had a monster 39% team target share in Week 2 (up from 26% in Week 1) and could feast this week on a thin Baltimore secondary. 

Sep 17, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (24) and linebacker Henry To'oTo'o (39) attempt to tackle Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) during the third quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Ravens' injury issues don’t stop in the secondary, either.

Both T Ronnie Staley and C Tyler Linderbaum didn’t play or practice last week, and neither are locks to return in Week 3.

WR Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle - questionable) also suffered an injury last week, although early reports have him likely to return to the lineup against the Colts. 

Lamar Jackson (237-2, 12-54) has been efficient to date in Todd Monken’s offense, although his passing totals haven’t leaped off the charts.

The Colts are a traditional funnel to the pass defense with a stout defensive line and weaker corners. They’re 27th in yards per attempt against and have allowed the fourth most passing yards against as well. Both Mark Andrews (5-45-1) and Zay Flowers (4-62) are in great spots this week for fantasy, with Baltimore likely to rely more heavily on Jackson’s arm than their current banged-up backfield to move the ball. 

Andrews's return last week saw him retake the lead as Jackson’s primary target, as his 24% team target share led the team. Flowers’s 62 yards led the team, but most of his yardage came on one play. After seeing extremely high usage in Week 1 (when Andrews was out) Flowers may be more up and down going forward. 

hat said, the matchup against the Colts secondary, who have already allowed four TDs to opposing WRs—and the fourth-most receptions to the position as well—is an excellent one. 

The line in this game opened at 7.5/+8.5 and is currently sitting at 8.0/+8.0 on most sportsbooks. It has the potential to move under a TD if Richardson gets cleared or has positive injury updates on Wednesday or Thursday.

However, with Richardson being a rookie, and Minshew being a popular and competent backup, it’s also possible the market doesn’t value the switch between these two as being worthy of more than a point of movement.  

At +8.0 the Colts do look like a play.

Lamar Jackson and Jim Harbaugh have been great to back as underdogs, but are just 4-10-0 ATS as home favorites since 2021.

The Colts have been in both games they’ve played thus far (and even won convincingly in Week 2). While it’s a little scary to be on the side of a team getting ready to start a backup QB against an above-average team, this may not be as big a mismatch as the market is currently pricing it.