Colts at Titans

The Colts come into Week 13 on a three-game winning streak and are now firmly in possession of second place in the division and the final playoff spot in the AFC. While they’ve rarely blown out opponents, the Colts have been fantastic in close games, with four of their six wins coming by a TD or less. 

The big news for the Colts this week is the status of RB Jonathan Taylor (out - thumb), who is coming off his best game of the year but is also now slated to miss 2-3 weeks. He’ll undergo thumb surgery for an injury sustained against the Buccaneers.  

Obviously the Colts would prefer Taylor to be on the field, but realistically, this is also an opponent they have already beaten without him this season. Zack Moss, who rushed for 6.87 YPC last week (8-55), had one of the best fantasy games of the season against Tennessee in Week 5, going for 23-165-2 as a rusher in the Colts' 23-16 win. Moss will now get another crack at Tennessee’s eroding defense, which allowed Chuba Hubbard to gain 92 total yards and a TD against them in Week 12.  

The Titans did have to face Anthony Richardson for a portion of their first game against the Colts, but when backup Gardner Minshew came in, he was also terrific, completing 11 of 14 passes for 155 yards—in what was one of his few games without a turnover on the season. Minshew has committed a turnover in all but one game since Week 5, but Tennessee is hardly an elite pressure unit either, ranking out 16th in sacks (29) and 26th in pressure rate. Their defensive line will face a Colts offensive line that has allowed just one sack per game over their last three outings. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) works to push Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) out of bounds Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, during a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Credit: Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

If the Titans can’t get to Minshew, it will be an issue, as their secondary again rates out poorly in limiting big plays from their opponent as well. The Titans are just 27th in yards per attempt against this season and have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, making this another terrific matchup for Michael Pittman. Pittman comes into this game off his second 100+ yard game of the season after he posted 10 catches for 107 yards against Tampa Bay. His 97% route rate and 31% season target share makes him as safe a fantasy play at WR as there is in 2023. 

For Tennessee, this will be another tough test for rookie Will Levis, who is doing his best behind what is potentially the worst offensive line in football. The Titans are now 28th in sacks allowed per game (3.3), and Levis has endured a 26.2% pressure rate through five starts—which would rate out as the third highest among starters this year. 

The Colts' defensive line has also turned into one of the league's best units at getting after the QB. Indianapolis has averaged 5.0 sacks per game over their last three outings and is sixth in total sacks on the season. 

The Titans' inability to protect Levis (and threaten teams with the pass) has also hurt their run efficiency in 2023. Tennessee is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry over their last three games, and RB Derrick Henry is also on pace to average just 4.2 yards per carry, which would match the lowest output of his career. 

The -1.0 line in favor of the Colts seems to be suggesting that we’ll see a close game, but the truth is that these teams aren’t that close on paper. If Tennessee can’t get pressure and Minshew hits some early passes to Michael Pittman, this could turn into a two-score deficit early, at which point Levis will be more concerned with avoiding decapitation than throwing downfield. 

The Colts may even be worth looking into as alternative line plays at -2.5 or -6.5 as there is the potential for Tennessee’s O-line and rush defense to simply be overwhelmed against a Colts side that is building in momentum.