Colts at Vikings (-3.5) – 47.5 total

The Vikings have started to feel like an old nemesis for me personally. I can assure you, I have no actual vendetta against Minnesota. If it feels like I’m picking against them on a near-weekly basis, it’s because I think they’re overvalued.

Let’s dive into the numbers. The Vikings are 10-3, good for second place in the NFC standings. Those wins all count, and the Vikings are all but assured to make the postseason. They can actually clinch a postseason spot this week with a win or a Lions loss.

That said, the way they have accumulated their wins has been fluky. They have routinely been outgained by their opponents this season, and they rank 39th in the league in yardage differential. They’ve engineered multiple improbable fourth-quarter comebacks, and their opponents also have plenty of self-inflicted wounds. Overall, the Vikings have an expected record of 6.5-6.5, which feels like an accurate representation of their talent level. They’re a .500 football team camouflaged by one of the best records in the league.

Conversely, the Colts stand out as an undervalued squad. They’re just 4-8-1 this season, but two of those losses came with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback. Ehlinger is not an NFL-caliber starter, so it’s hard to fault them too much for losing those contests.

Since Matt Ryan rejoined the lineup, the team has played much better. They pulled off a win over the Raiders, and they followed that up with a one-point loss to the Eagles. They lost by a touchdown to the Steelers – another underrated football team – and then played a competitive matchup against the Cowboys. They trailed by just two points entering the fourth quarter in Dallas, but a series of turnovers allowed the Cowboys to run away with the game late.

The fact that the Colts lost by such a wide margin in their last game sets up a nice buy-low opportunity. Teams coming off a loss of at least 35 points have gone 73-41-5 against the spread since 2003. The Colts are also coming off a bye last week, while the Vikings are playing on short rest.

Regression has already started to rear its ugly head for the Vikings, and I only think it’s going to continue. I’m all over the Colts +4.5.