Commanders at 49ers (-7) – 37.5 total

This matchup doesn’t necessarily jump out at you when looking at this weekend’s slate, but there is plenty on the line when the Commanders and 49ers square off on Christmas Eve. If the season ended today, this would actually be a playoff game, with the 49ers currently the #3 seed and the Commanders the #6 seed in the NFC. 

San Francisco has already secured the NFC West title but they are still chasing the #2 seed and want to extend their 7 game winning streak. Not bad for a team on their third string QB. The Commanders, on the other hand, are fighting to stay in the Wild Card hunt and face a difficult schedule to end the season. HC Ron Rivera is choosing to stick with Taylor Heinicke at QB for now, but we could see a switch back to Carson Wentz at any point.

The Brock Purdy experience has exceeded expectations through three games and the 49ers still look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. He has stepped in and effectively managed games, with a 5:3 TD-INT ratio, and distributed the ball to at least 6 different pass catchers in each of his starts. There is always a chance his play could decline from here, but we have seen enough success from the Shanahan system with replacement-level QBs in the past to be confident in the skill position players. Both Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are elite options at their position, while Brandon Aiyuk checks in as a low-end WR2 in the Fantasy Life rankings 

The Commanders’ defense hasn’t allowed more than 21 points in a game since Week 4 and actually ranks top 5 against opposing RBs and TEs on the season, which should make for a fun matchup against the strengths of the 49ers offense. That being said, I buy the San Francisco offense more than the Washington defense and expect them to be able to move the ball. The real question is if they can continue to convert drives into touchdowns at a decent rate. 

The Washington offense hasn’t been particularly effective at putting points on the board, but they have offered some fantasy value in recent weeks with Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, and Jahan Dotson each posting a top 10 finish at their position in one of their past three games. 

The 49ers defense is arguably the best in the league and will make things difficult on the Washington offense. We shouldn’t expect career-high performances from anyone, but McLaurin is still a WR2 and Robinson is a volume-based flex play. If you want a deep DFS play, Antonio Gibson could see extra work in the passing game if they fall behind and fail to move the ball on the ground.

The 49ers are deserving favorites here but with the line at -7, I am staying away from betting the spread. These defenses should keep this one low-scoring, but the 49ers are the better team and playing at home so I am confident they will find a way to get the win.