Washington Commanders @ Denver Broncos

So, I look at these teams and don’t know what to think.

I mean, sure. One of these teams has a winning record. Both have QBs that scored more fantasy points than Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow in Week 1. Maybe my Week 1 expectations clashed so much with the results that I’ve got more questions than answers. 

Regardless, let’s dig into the Commanders and see if I can get on board along the way.

OK, let’s start here.

From a fantasy standpoint, we got everything we could’ve wanted from Sam Howell in Week 1. Outside of the passing TD, he worked through his progressions and even ran in a score on his own. Howell had a league-average scramble rate (5.0%), and we saw more passing with him under center. Washington had a pass rate over expected (PROE) of -7% through the ’22 season, which bumped up to -1% for Howell and new OC Eric Bienemy.

Overall, this is good! But it’s not all good.

Howell was 24th in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), and only four of his attempts went beyond 15 air yards.

Combined with his six sacks, the Commanders (21.9 yards per drive) were behind the Steelers (22.2), Titans (22.5), and Texans (23.1) in generating yards. But at least we know who his leading pass-catcher will be.

Logan Thomas! Wait, what?

No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you. The oft-injured TE was first in targets (8) and second in air yard share (22.3%). Cole Turner even got a couple of darts from Howell. In fact, seven different players got an attempt thrown their way against the Cardinals, and slightly fewer than that were useful against the Denver defense this past week.

The Raiders picked on Denver’s rookie CB Damarri Matthis all game. Jakobi Meyers (10-81-2) scored both touchdowns against him, and it likely won’t be long until Howell finds the freshman defender.

This gives some hope for Terry McLaurin, as Matthis only played outside. But Washington may lean on the run if Denver’s pass rush gets Howell off his game.

The lopsidedness of the Commanders’ backfield split (19 to 3 in favor of Brian Robinson) is because Antonio Gibson lost a fumble after his third attempt. Regardless, the Raiders were bottom 10 in rushing efficiency to start the season. At best, both RBs are flex plays, with Robinson getting a slight bump after earning two targets to go with his carries.

On the Denver side, I was somewhat encouraged by Russell Wilson in Week 1.

I assumed HC Sean Payton would dial Wilson’s passing rate back after a disastrous outing in ’22, but the Broncos nearly matched last season’s PROE (-2%) against the Raiders (-1%).

Jun 13, 2022; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) during mini camp drills at the UCHealth Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

At least one part of Wilson’s game came back (at least for the season opener): his accuracy.

Wilson’s +15.0% CPOE ranked first on the week. Granted, he averaged 4.1 air yards a toss, but let’s celebrate some progress. 

However, his receiving options may prefer he start taking more deep shots soon.

Javonte Williams led the crew with six targets, and Courtland Sutton wasn’t too far behind at five.

Marvin Mims, who was in line to replace Jerry Jeudy, only earned two looks from Wilson. Plus, the rookie only ran a route on 27.8% of Wilson’s dropbacks. 

Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Adam Trautman, and Brandon Johnson all saw the field more with similar workloads after an offseason of positive reports about the Oklahoma product. 

So, the best fantasy options from the Broncos reside in the backfield.

In his first game back from injury, Williams had more touches (17) than Joe Mixon (16), Saquon Barkley (15), and Tony Pollard (16).

Williams was tenth in yards after contact per attempt amongst all RBs (min 10 attempts), and he out-rushed Samaje Perine (13 attempts to 8). 

We’re still waiting for the explosiveness to return fully, but his usage should elevate him to RB2 status against the Commanders.