Commanders at Cowboys

This is the classic “two teams heading in opposite directions” matchup. The Commanders have had a poor season but are now coming off an embarrassing loss to the Giants, who were led by a third-string rookie in Tommy DeVito last Sunday. 

DeVito—who had previously been held under 100 passing yards by the Cowboys—racked up three TD passes and threw for 9.46 yards per attempt in the win, which showcases just how poorly this Washington defense defends against the pass. 

The loss of Chase Young has only amplified the suck for Washington, whose secondary has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs AND the most receiving yards to opposing WRs. Without Chase Young and a pass rush to bail them out, the Commanders are literally a lame duck defense just waiting to be torn to shreds. 

That’s really good news for the Cowboys, who have Dak Prescott playing some of the best football of his career at the moment. Prescott didn’t need to do much last week against Carolina—who was allowing big rushing plays on defense and throwing pick-sixes when they had the ball on offense—but still managed to throw for two more TDs in the win. Prescott now has 13 TD passes over his last four games and is tied for third in TD passes on the season. 

Prescott’s rise has brought CeeDee Lamb back into the top WR discussion for fantasy of late as well (3rd in full PPR scoring). Lamb finally cooled off last week with just 38 yards but had posted four straight games with 100+ yards before the Carolina blowout win slowed his momentum. He has elite usage metrics with a 27% target share and 34% air yards share on the season—and those marks have been significantly better over the last five games as well. 

Nov 19, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) makes a throw against the Carolina Panthers during the second half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

RB Tony Pollard also got going last week, which is more bad news for Washington. The Commanders allowed 5.92 yards per carry to Saquon Barkley last week and 6.92 yards per carry to the Patriots' backs three weeks ago. This defensive line has been gutted, and it would come as no shock if Pollard had himself a big day here with the Cowboys favored by -11.0 at home. 

Sam Howell had been putting on a brave face and keeping things close but got tripped up by the Giants' defense last week. The going only gets tougher against Dallas, who has allowed just 5.6 yards per attempt this year (fourth best) and ranks sixth in total sacks. Howell has taken the most sacks of any quarterback in the league—13 more than 2nd place Zach Wilson—and is in a really tough spot this week, especially with a short week. 

Washington is sixth in yards per rush this season, and one name to watch out for is rookie RB Chris Rodriguez, who has shown explosiveness when given the chance. Rodriguez took a 24% carry share last week in a close game and popped off for over 7.0 yards per carry (6-43). Who knows what the Commanders will do, since they had previously given Rodriguez zero carries over the last four games, but it would likely behoove them to give the rookie more work this week and see if his added explosiveness can catch the Cowboys' front seven off guard. 

The Commanders' hopes here seem bleak. They have surprised as big underdogs a couple times this season—against the Eagles twice, and the Seahawks—but Dallas has a more structurally sound defense that isn’t likely to allow the Commanders to throw the ball around with impunity. Dak Prescott is also 29-11-1 ATS as a favorite of 6.0 points or more now after last week. 

Outside of taking Dallas as a big favorite, another way to play this game may be the total, which has risen to 48.5 (opened at 44.5). I’m not sure Washington is going to have much success on offense given how many sacks they allow, and Dallas may be happy to run out the clock late in this game given the short week. These teams are a rarity in 2023 (both have winning records to the overs) but I don’t dislike the idea of selling the top after this kind of big move and taking an under at 48.5 or higher.