Commanders (-2.5) at Giants – 40.5 total

The Commanders and Giants both have coin-flip or better odds to make the playoffs. They’re playing meaningful football in December. At this point, we’re looking at their depth charts for young players we may see more of as the season winds down. But for Washington, we want to see more of their stars.

Terry McLaurin has flourished with Taylor Heinicke under center. He has the highest air-yard share of any receiver, and only Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams have a greater percentage of their team’s targets. The Giants are 24th in dropback EPA allowed over their last six games, with top-20 finishes from CeeDee Lamb (11-106-0) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (8-76-0). The game environment lends itself to a positive passing performance, but Washington’s offensive approach dampens the outlook of their pass-catchers.

The Commanders are 31st in early-down pass rate with Heinicke. They’re league average as an offense (32.7 yards per drive), but the volume limits our fantasy options. Curtis Samuel played 60.0% of the snaps on Sunday and got an airball in the box score. Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas combined for seven yards. We’ll likely see more of Brian Robinson in the end zone (with a helmet on, not his big hat) while the Giants continue to adjust on offense.

Any offense relying on Richie James, Isaiah Hodgins, and Lawrence Cager to stay healthy and be significant contributors is one in dire straits. But here we are. However, even after a loss to the Cowboys, I’m not completely out on the Giants.

Daniel Jones and company were eighth in EPA per play on early downs against Dallas. Between the Cowboys’ stifling defense and penalties, the Giants' average third-down distance  was 8.8 yards. It’s no wonder they struggled to move the ball. But it’ll be a different story against Washington.

Saquon Barkley may have a tough time against the Commanders’ front (ninth in rushing EPA allowed since Week 6), but he’s third in targets. Darius Slayton continues to make big plays and is 11th in YPRR among all WRs over the last month. If Brian Daboll can keep Jones on the move to open up passing lanes downfield, the Giants can rack up another win.