Washington Commanders @ New York Jets

Another year, another disappointing season for the Jets and Commanders. These have been arguably the two most embarrassing franchises in recent history, albeit in different ways. The Jets have turned in some hilarious on-field moments – the butt fumble, “ghost vision”, and mono just to name a few – while the Commanders have blended on-field struggles with incompetent ownership.

This wasn’t supposed to happen to the Jets this season. They acquired Aaron Rodgers in the offseason, who was poised to become the greatest QB in franchise history even at nearly 40 years old. That’s not an exaggeration. The last 4,000 yard passer for the Jets was Joe Namath back in 1967, and that was the only time he ever accomplished that feat. Rodgers has done it 10 separate times.

We know how things went next. Rodgers went down with an injury just four plays into his debut in New York, and the season was officially over. The team said the right things and tried to survive with Zach Wilson, but they never had a chance. The Jets were officially eliminated from playoff contention last weekend, and that has eliminated any hope of Rodgers returning to the lineup in 2023.

For the Commanders, they were turning over a new page in 2023. They have a new owner and a new starting QB in Sam Howell. Howell has had some moments this season, but he's also taken an all-time beating behind a sketchy offensive line. Howell has been sacked 59 times in his 14 starts this year, giving him a shot to break the single-season record of 76 sacks taken by David Carr in 2002.

Dec 17, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) throws against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Still, Howell refuses to be deterred. He leads the league in both pass attempts and INTs, so when he’s not on his back, he’s letting it fly.

Who will be under center for the Jets is a bigger question. With Rodgers out and Wilson suffering from concussion symptoms, it could be Trevor Siemian making his first start of the year. Siemian's 2.2 adjusted yards per attempt and 5.1% INT rate leaves a lot to be desired, so he would be a significant downgrade from Wilson if forced into action again, which is saying something.

Dec 17, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner (1) hits Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) after a catch during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The one thing that New York does have going for them is an excellent defense. They didn’t look impressive last week at Miami, but the Jets currently rank fifth in EPA allowed per play on the year. They boast a strong defensive line and great cornerbacks and should be able to make Howell’s life miserable this week.

As for the spread, it’s hard to look at these two squads and not simply take the points. When we’re dealing with two bad teams and a point total in the mid-30s, the points become extremely valuable. Historically, in matchups between squads with winning percentages of 40% or lower, the underdog is 380-338-18 ATS. That’s not a huge win rate, but it’s still a profitable edge.

Personally, I’ve already locked in a play on Commanders +3.0 in our NFL Bet Tracker. I expect this number to close at less than three points if Siemian is announced as the starting QB, so consider pulling the trigger early on this key number while you still can.