Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots

Both of these teams faced a tough divisional opponent in Week 8, and both put together promising results. The Commanders were leading for a large part of their game against the Eagles but ultimately lost by a TD. The Patriots were also within striking distance for most of their contest against the Dolphins before a late Miami TD pushed the final margin to 14 points.

This has largely been the story for these two teams all season. They’re not exactly bad, but they’re just not good enough to get many wins. New England sits at just 2-6 on the year while Washington isn't much better at 3-5.

The Patriots' biggest issues have come on offense. They’re actually 10th in yards per game allowed defensively, and yet, they’re just 26th in points allowed. That’s because New England's offense has routinely put their defense in bad field position due to turnovers. They’ve averaged 1.6 giveaways per game in 2023, which is tied for sixth-worst in the league.

And it's not like the Patriots' offense has been particularly successful even when not turning the ball over. They currently rank just 30th in EPA per play, and they’ve averaged the second-fewest points per game. Only the Giants have been a more futile scoring offense this season, and at least New York has excuses of having dealt with injury issues along the offensive line and at QB all year.

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) drops back to pass against the Miami Dolphins during the second half of an NFL game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Oct. 29, 2023. Photo Credit: Jim Rassol / USA TODAY NETWORK

That’s not what the team was hoping for after bringing back Bill O’Brien last offseason to helm the offense. He was supposed to help Mac Jones revert to his rookie-year form, when he had an impressive 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt. Instead, Jones has plummeted to a career-worst 5.3 yards per attempt in 2023 and has just one more TD than he has INTs on the year.

To be fair, Jones isn't getting a ton of help from his pass-catchers, and things don’t figure to get any better in that department. The Patriots' No. 1 WR Kendrick Bourne just tore his ACL last week in Miami, and there's also a chance that DeVante Parker could be sidelined for this game as well after suffering a concussion.

Parker out as well would leave a very uninspiring group of pass-catchers for Jones this week against Washington. Even with the Commanders having traded away both Chase Young and Montez Sweat earlier this week, Jones could have his work cut out for him.

For the Commanders, their biggest problems have been with the defense and the offensive line. Sam Howell entered Week 8 leading the league with a ridiculous 40 sacks taken, putting him on pace to shatter the previous record.

Oct 29, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) passes the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

However, Washington showed some improvement last week against Philadelphia. The Eagles boast a strong pass rush, but Howell got rid of the ball more quickly than he had up until then. He averaged just 2.54 seconds per pass attempt against Philadelphia last week after having averaged closer to three seconds per attempt over the first seven weeks of the year.

Howell should get a bit of a reprieve this week as well against a Patriots defense that ranks only 30th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass rush grade. With their top pass-rusher Matthew Judon on IR, New England has one of the worst pass-rush units in the NFL.

When the Commanders have kept Howell upright this season, he’s been pretty productive. He’s completed 71.9% of his passes and thrown 10 TDs to just three INTs from a clean pocket thus far in 2023. When under pressure, Howell's completion rate has dipped to 54.0%, and he's thrown three TDs to five INTs.

I side with Washington in this game for this reason, and you can grab the Commanders at +3.5 at BetMGM. They’re at +3.0 across most of the industry, and three is easily the biggest key number in NFL betting. That makes the +3.5 inherently valuable.