Washington Commanders @ Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks were flying high heading into Week 9. They were 5-2 after having won five of their previous six games, putting them behind only the Eagles and Lions in the NFC.

Unfortunately, they came crashing back to reality on Sunday in Baltimore.

They were absolutely humbled by the Ravens, who beat them by 34 points. Seattle's offense was held to a paltry 151 total yards while the Ravens racked up 515 total yards against them. The game got so out of hand that Baltimore rested Lamar Jackson in the fourth quarter.

There’s certainly no shame in losing on the road against the Ravens, the best team in the NFL right now according to the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, but the way in which the Seahawks got crushed makes you question just how good (or not) they really are.

Despite that devastating loss to Baltimore, I still think that Seattle is in fact pretty good. The Seahawks rank ninth per the Massey-Peabody rankings thanks in part to their explosive offense. They were eighth in EPA per play heading into last week, and while they obviously dropped after that performance, Seattle has a ton of budding talent on offense.

Nov 5, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) passes against the Baltimore Ravens during the third quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

Geno Smith remains an above-average starter in the league, currently ranking 14th among QBs in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade, and the Seahawks have surrounded him with an excellent group of young skill-position players.

The biggest reason for optimism, though, is Seattle's defense. The defense was a major weakness last year, but they’ve made big strides in 2023. Devon Witherspoon and Tre Brown both rank among the top-16 cornerbacks in the league per PFF, and Boye Mafe has made a huge jump as a pass-rusher in his second season.

The Seahawks' defense was 10th in EPA allowed per play heading into last week’s game, making them one of just a handful of teams with a top-10 ranking on both sides of the ball prior to Week 9.

In short, I expect them to bounce back in a big way back at home against the Commanders.

Washington might not seem like one of the worst teams in football given their 4-5 record, but they have no real intention of winning games at the moment. They made that clear when they moved both Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the trade deadline.

Oct 29, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) looks to pass over Washington Commanders defensive end Montez Sweat (90) during the first half at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The Commanders did pick up a win without both players last week in New England, but that's hardly a feat considering the Patriots are now 2-7 on the year. In fact, Washington's four wins in 2023 have come against opponents who currently have a combined record of 10-25.

The Commanders nearly beat a good Eagles team twice this year, but it’s not a huge shock that they were able to find success against a familiar divisional rival. Washington's only matchup against a good non-divisional team was the Bills in Week 3, and they lost that game by 34 points at home.

Buying low on teams like Seattle coming off a big loss is typically a wise decision. Teams with winning records are 43-30-3 ATS following a loss of at least 28 points, including a perfect 4-0 so far this season.

Pete Carroll has also historically been an elite coach to target following a loss. He’s 47-29-4 ATS following a loss and 29-14-2 at home. That’s good for a 30.2% return on investment.

Add it all up, and this seems like an outstanding buy-low spot for the Seahawks. I’m happy to play them at home at less than a TD this week.