Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers

Fasten your seatbelts, kids. This should be a good one. The Cowboys and 49ers have both looked like juggernauts at times this season, and they’ll square off on Sunday Night Football in Week 5. This could be a potential NFC Championship game preview, though the Eagles would probably take some exception to that statement.

San Francisco enters this contest with a perfect 4-0 record, and all four of their wins have been by a TD or more. They’d be a perfect 4-0 against the spread as well were it not for Sean McVay deciding to kick a meaningless field goal as time expired in Week 2.

The 49ers boast arguably a top-five unit on both sides of the ball.

The defense gets most of the attention, led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa. They were first in yards and points allowed per game last season, and San Francisco's defense is arguably even better in 2023 after adding Javon Hargrave in free agency this past offseason.

That said, the defense hasn’t been quite as dominant so far this season. They’re still really, really good (third in points allowed per game and fifth in yards allowed per game), but the 49ers have shown a bit of vulnerability.

They allowed 386 yards and 23 points to the Rams in Week 2, and the Cardinals managed to gain 362 yards this past week. In 2022, San Francisco allowed more than 350 yards just twice in 17 games, and one of those was by Kansas City.

Fortunately, the 49ers also have one of the best offenses in football. They don’t get the same respect as teams like the Chiefs, Bills, and Dolphins because of Brock Purdy, but the numbers don’t lie. San Francisco's offense is currently third in points per game and second in yards per game, and they trail only the Dolphins in EPA per play.

Oct 1, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass during the third quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Purdy may not have a very difficult job with a surrounding cast consisting of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, but he’s played his part to perfection. In fact, Purdy is currently the No. 1 QB in the league in adjusted yards per attempt and EPA + CPOE composite.

Are there other QBs in the league who could do what Purdy is doing? Sure, but that doesn’t change the fact that Purdy has been executing Shanahan's scheme to perfection. To date, Purdy has a perfect 11-0 record in games where he didn’t suffer an injury.

On the other side, the Cowboys have played three near-flawless games.

They hit a massive speed bump in Week 3, suffering a defeat at Arizona despite having entered the game as double-digit favorites, but the team was dealing with some massive injuries in that matchup. They were missing Tyron Smith, Tyler Biadasz, and Zack Martin on the offensive line, and Dallas had just lost Trevon Diggs to a season-ending injury that week.

The Cowboys got Martin and Biadasz back in Week 4, and they responded with a beatdown of the Patriots. Dallas won by 35 points, and excluding Week 3, the team has now outscored the Giants, Jets, and Patriots by a combined score of 108-13. That’s ridiculous.

Oct 1, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws during the first quarter against the New England Patriots at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Cowboys’ offense hasn’t been quite as impressive as the 49ers, but their defense might be even better. Dallas is second in yards allowed and first in points allowed through the first four weeks, and they’ve specialized in making splash plays, currently tied for second in takeaways per game (2.5) and tied for fifth in sacks per game (3.5).

That said, it’s important to remember that neither of these teams have really been tested. Overall, the Cowboys' four opponents have just four combined wins this season, while the 49ers’ opponents have just five combined wins. That means it’s hard to know just how good both teams truly are given the level of competition they've faced to start the season.

From a betting perspective, San Francisco is getting plenty of love from the sharps. This line was listed at 49ers -3.0 on the lookahead line, but they’re now up to 3.5 across most of the industry, even creeping up to 4.0 at some locations. San Francisco has also received 69% of the early spread bets and 93% of the dollars per the Action Network, so this number could continue to rise.

I personally think that the 49ers are the correct side. While the Cowboys were extremely impressive against the Patriots, it was definitely a fluky result. They had two defensive scores in that contest, and they outgained the Patriots by just 124 yards. Although that’s still a fair margin, it doesn’t quite reflect the same level of domination that the final score might indicate. Overall, the 49ers are third in yardage differential for the year while the Cowboys are merely sixth.

Additionally, fading teams coming off a blowout win has historically been profitable. Teams are just 50-68-5 ATS the following week after a victory of at least 35 points dating back to 2005, although Dallas did already cover once in the same scenario earlier this season.

Ultimately, I side with the 49ers at anything less than 4.0 points.