Cowboys at Buccaneers 

The Cowboys enter their first playoff game of the season as -2.5 favorites. It’s been a year of extremes for Dallas, who were once considered to be the potential class of the NFC before struggling down the stretch. A loss to Jacksonville was followed by unconvincing wins against backup quarterbacks from Philadelphia and Tennessee, which then led to a 26-6 loss at the hands of Washington rookie Sam Howell. It was a somewhat humiliating way to end the season for a team who had the chance to be the number one seed prior to Week 18. 

The Cowboys were fourth in the league in sacks this year but averaged just 1.5 sacks per game between Weeks 12-17. That also correlated with a rise in passing yards allowed and somewhat explains the shootouts they were involved in against Jacksonville and Philadelphia. 

Dallas’ secondary also took a hit when they lost cornerbacks Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis for the year. The Cowboys allowed eight TDs to the WR position in their last four games of the season and will face off against a couple of elite receivers this week in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Evans exploded for three TDs in Week 17 against the Panthers, but it’s Godwin who feels like the player Dallas should be most concerned about. 

Tampa Bay made a concerted effort to get him going before pulling the starters last week, with Tom Brady throwing the ball his way six times, on just 17 pass attempts. Godwin and Brady have also looked dialed of late, with Godwin hauling in 31 of his last 34 targets. 

With Dallas’ corners hurting and their pass rush far less effective, Godwin’s over on his 67.5 yardage prop looks worth taking, and chasing him as a TD scorer in the first TD prop market or a single game parlay also makes sense.

One area that should be faded for Tampa Bay this week? The run game. The Buccaneers have dealt with injury issues and poor performance by their O-Line since the preseason and it’s led to them averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this year, the worst mark in the league. 

Rookie Rachaad White has averaged just 3.36 yards per carry in his last four outings and will have to overcome both a Dallas rush defense that ranks fifth in defensive rush DVOA this year and a playoff-hardened backfield mate in Leonard Fournette, who took just one touch last week in what was likely an effort to keep him as fresh as possible for this week. 

White has a 31.2 yardage projection this week on Fantasy Life which is a full 4.0 yards less than his 35.5 rushing prop. He’s a solid under target and a player who has a variety of factors working against him.  

Despite the poor end to their season, Dallas should view the Buccaneers as a potential chance to reassert themselves. Tampa Bay rated out worse in nearly every category this year, struggling to an 8-9 record which somehow won them the NFC South title. 

While Tampa regressed at defending against the run in 2022-23, they still allowed just six rushing TDs to the RB position this season. If they want to score, Dallas will almost certainly need Dak Prescott to bounce back quickly from a terrible game against Washington. 

Prescott is more than capable of winning this game for Dallas on his own, and threw for multiple TD passes in eight of his last 10 games on the season. If he does have success this week in putting up points, don’t be shocked if Dalton Schultz is one of the biggest beneficiaries. 

Tampa’s coverage against the TE position was terrible most of the season, especially in the red zone, as they allowed nine overall TDs to opposing TEs (the fifth-most in the league). Schultz’s anytime TD prop (which sits around +210 as of writing) is worth attacking and he should be a pivotal player for Dallas’s hopes this week,as he was in their Week 1 loss to Tampa when he secured seven receptions on nine targets. 

Just based on what we saw during the season, if these two teams both play up to the top of their ability, the Cowboys should win going away. Taking Dallas to cover this week feels like the right side to be on, but with some solid totals and good matchups to take advantage of, staying with the props might be the most profitable approach.