Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers

The Monday Night game for Week 6 features an intriguing matchup of two of the most roller coaster franchises in the league. The Cowboys (who everyone had at the top of their power rankings after two cupcake matchups to start the season) have fallen off considerably. They come in as losers of two of their past three games, having now been dismantled by an NFC West team in two of the past three weeks. 

The Chargers haven’t exactly started out like gangbusters either, but did take care of business in Week 4 before going on a bye, landing a 24-17 win over the Raiders (and rookie QB Aiden O’ Connell). In typical Charger fashion they did make that game closer than it needed to be, but have now won two straight and obviously have Dallas at a rest disadvantage. 

Dallas’s woes on defense have been evident since losing Trevon Diggs. They allowed Brock Purdy to throw for four TDs (252-4-0) while averaging 10.5 yards per attempt in Week 5. The Cowboys' vaunted pass rush shriveled up considerably in that game, and that’s a concern for them this week against the Chargers, who have a good offensive line and have allowed the seventh-fewest sacks this year. 

The bigger issue for Dallas, though, may be stopping the run. Austin Ekeler (ankle) is due back after a multiple week absence and was spotted at practice on Tuesday. The Cowboys allowed 222 yards rushing to the Cardinals in Week 3 and will be facing off against former OC Kellen Moore on the other side.

Certainly, Moore knows the tendencies of the Dallas defense and the danger of employing longer dropbacks with Justin Herbert, so expect him to lean heavily on Ekeler in both the run and passing game (if he’s given a clean bill of health). No Chargers RB has gone for over 65 yards since Ekeler burst out for 115 in Week 1. 

If this game does delve into shootout territory, the Chargers will at least be in good hands. Herbert has produced career numbers through four games with a yards per attempt metric (7.6) that is nearly a yard better than he posted in 2022—while averaging a 71% completion rate on his passes through four weeks. 

Herbert was sitting around 7th in MVP voting (+1600) going into the week, but a big game against what is considered to be a decent pass defense may see him vault up in that market. Taking him in the MVP market is a good way to get leverage on the Chargers for betting if you like them this week. 

Oct 1, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) runs the ball against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

On the Cowboys side, there have to be some concerns with Dak Prescott (153-1-3) at this point. He’s benefited from an easy opening schedule and yet is only averaging 6.6 yards per attempt and has an INT rate over 3.0% over the past season and a half. The Chargers will likely allow for a good bounceback spot as they are just 22nd in defensive DVOA and 29th (7.6 yards) in yards per attempt against. 

From a usage perspective, it’s worth noting that Michael Gallup has essentially moved into a timeshare for the number one role with Cee Dee Lamb over the last few games. Gallup and Lamb have posted the same route rate and target share the last two weeks, with Gallup also grabbing a bigger chunk of the air yards against the 49ers. It’s possible this situation tilts back to Lamb, but Gallup’s alternate line props for Monday Night Football against this weaker secondary will be something to take note of. 

The trends here say Dallas will bounce back. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are 9-1 ATS off a loss over the past two seasons and are still favored in this game as the line has moved toward them at -2.0 (line opened at +1.0 Dallas) despite getting blown out by the 49ers. 

With Dallas’s defense struggling and the Chargers' offense a top five unit in overall DVOA, taking the points with the Chargers if they were to get to +2.5 (or potentially +3.0) would be appealing. This should be a close and potentially higher scoring game with Los Angeles trying to grab a signature win and the Cowboys looking to avoid dropping out of the NFC East divisional race.