Cowboys at Commanders

The Cowboys had a good Week 17. They survived eligibility-gate—when the Lions looked like they had converted a potential game-winning 2-point conversion—and beat the Lions to move to 11-5. 

Then, they lucked out even further by having the underdog Cardinals upset the Eagles on Sunday. With that loss, the Cowboys now sit tied in record with the Eagles, whom they also hold the tiebreaker over. That means that this Sunday breaks down very simple for Dallas—win and they’re in. 

As of now, Dallas sits as -13.0 favorites against the Commanders, who they will play against in Week 18, in Washington. Dallas has been money in these spots for 2023. They have won eight of their 11 games this season by 20 points or more, and in those eight wins they were favored by a TD or more in five of them. And it’s not like Washington is being overlooked. 

The Commanders are the second worst-rated defense by EPA per play this season and allowed 27 points last week to the 49ers, who were without their best offensive player in Christian McCaffrey for most of the game. The Commanders continued to regress badly against the run as well, allowing 147 yards rushing to the 49ers running backs. If I had to guess, I’d expect this will likely be a big week for Tony Pollard, who really disappointed fantasy owners in the fantasy playoffs. 

Dec 24, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) runs the ball against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Pollard comes in with zero TDs over his last four games and off three tough matchups in a row. The season has been a forgettable one for him in many ways. In his first year as the Cowboys' featured back, many were predicting a massive season with him potentially challenging to be RB1 in fantasy. That hasn’t transpired (Pollard ended the year 14th in PPR scoring), but there is still time for a big finale. The Commanders are 29th in success rate against the run since Week 10, which coincides with when they traded LB Montez Sweat. Pollard is in for a big week and one of my favorite players to target with TD props and same game parlays for Week 18. 

On the Commanders' side, there is still uncertainty around who starts at QB in this game. Sam Howell got benched last week but then ended up having to make an emergency start thanks to Jacoby Brisett’s hamstring tightness. Howell didn’t exactly light the world on fire against the 49ers (17 for 28, 169 yards, TD and 2 INTs) and has really struggled in the back half of the season. If Brissett is healthy he’ll likely start, but there is no incentive for Washington to use a veteran who is less than 100% in this spot either. 

This will be a very tough spot for whichever Washington signal caller starts, regardless. The Cowboys' defense already has 15 INTs on the seaosn and is still 6th in defensive EPA per dropback. Outside of Terry McLaurin (4-61-1) and Curtis Samuel (3-33), no other WR on the Commanders caught a pass last week, and it seems foolhardy to expect much from this group—especially if the struggling Howell starts. 

Brian Robinson (64% rush attempts, 45% route rate) returned from injury last week and took command of the backfield touches once again. Expect Washington to lean on him as much as possible with early down runs (when the game is still close) and screens. 

The Commanders are 6-5 ATS as underdogs this season but are also 1-3-1 ATS in divisional games (the Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in division). The Cowboys have been great at covering big spreads, and if they do get an entire game of Sam Howell to finish off the year, it will be hard not like them on the spread at anything under -14.0.