Cowboys at Jaguars (+5.0) – 47.5 total 

The Cowboys escaped their last game against Houston with a 27-23 win. The fact that they needed a late 98-yard TD drive to win a game where they were as much as 17.0-point favorites at one time is somewhat concerning. However, Dallas also comes in averaging 36.3 points per game over their last three starts and have now won six of their last seven games (and four in a row), with their only loss in that span being an OT game on the road in Green Bay. 

Jacksonville is also trending well. The team rebounded from a bad road loss in Detroit to grab a 14-point win over division rival Tennessee in Week 14. The Jaguars are just 2-2 over their last four games, but are still alive in the AFC South division race thanks to their win over Tennessee, who they play again in Week 18. Jacksonville’s surge over the last three weeks has been led by Trevor Lawrence, who has thrown for over 300 yards and 3 TDs in two of the last three games. 

Lawrence and the Jaguars offense have been far more successful as a unit throwing downfield of late. The Detroit disaster game aside, he averaged over 8.5 yards per attempt in Week 13’s comeback win against Baltimore and did the same last week against Tennessee. Jacksonville is giving Lawrence time in the pocket, as the 2021 first overall draft pick has been sacked just 1.8 times per game this year, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. If Dallas can’t get pressure in this game, it could lead to another solid outing from Lawrence, who is currently projected for the seventh-highest passing yards in the Fantasy Life projections for Week 15. 

Lawrence has also been very good about mixing in all of the Jaguars receivers and letting them exploit the opposition with their differing strengths. Each of the past three weeks has seen a different Jaguars receiver go for over 100-yards. Last week was TE Evan Engram’s turn to get in on the fun, as he saw 15 targets against Tennessee (the most any Jaguars receiver has seen in a game this year) and torched Tennessee in the short to intermediate routes all day for an 11-162-2 line. Engram averaged 4.8 receptions, 54 yards, and 0.4 TDs per game against Dallas when he was with the Giants and could be a pivotal figure this week as well. 

Dallas has numerous ways to destroy opposing defenses, although do expect them to lean a little heavier on the arm of Dak Prescott in this game. Jacksonville has been a funnel to the pass defense most of the season and have allowed 7.4 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks over their last three games. Of note is the fact Cee Dee Lamb’s team target share has dwindled the last couple of games to the point where he saw the exact same number of passes thrown his way (6) against Houston as both Michael Gallup and Noah Brown. 

Lamb won’t have an athlete like Derek Stingley Jr. in the secondary to worry about this week, however, and Jacksonville has been near helpless when going up against elite WR1’s. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr., and Davante Adams all went for 10 or more catches and well over 100 yards against Jacksonville at some point this season (St. Brown’s game was just two weeks ago) and those three WRs all share elite team target shares of over 22% with Lamb; of the four, Lamb actually has the second-highest mark at 28.4%.  

The one injury to concern ourselves with for this game is Trevor Lawrence, who again missed an early week practice for Jacksonville with a toe issue. Lawrence practiced through the issue last week – and clearly wasn’t limited at all in the actual game – so as long as he returns to practice by Friday, it’s not a news item to get overall concerned about. Look for a competitive game with Jacksonville back at home and a coach in Doug Pederson who knows the Cowboys well. Dallas likely escapes with the straight-up win, but taking the points on the suddenly-frisky Jaguars looks like the more enticing play.