Cowboys at Titans 

Tennessee’s only path to the playoffs now involves winning the division, which they can still do by beating Jacksonville in their final game of the year. Before that showdown with Jacksonville though, they have this meaningless Thursday night matchup against an elite Cowboys squad who won their fifth game in six weeks against the Eagles last weekend. 

Tennessee has almost no incentive for playing their stars in this game. Running back Derrick Henry started the week on the injury report with a hip issue but did manage to do limited work on Tuesday. Despite the improved outlook, it would make zero sense for Mike Vrabel to have Henry suit up this week. He’s had 25 touches in each of the last two games and has also lost fumbles in three straight games. A rest would give him time to focus on destroying the upstart Jaguars in Week 18. 

If and when Henry gets deactivated, look for rookie Hassan Haskins to get announced as starter. Haskins has served mainly as the Titans kick returner in the regular season, taking just 11 carries this year, but would be the favorite to lead the team in carries with no Henry. The Cowboys defensive front has been tough on opposing RBs this season, allowing the third fewest fantasy points against to the position, and Haskins will also likely have competition for usage from undrafted rookie Julius Chestnut, and quarterback Malik Willis. 

Willis is a different story. With Ryan Tannehill banged up, Willis will be locked in for the full game barring an injury. He’s averaged 7.5 rushes and 41.5 yards rushing in his last two starts but that was with a healthy and active Derrick Henry taking 20+ carries. Don’t be shocked if offensive coordinator Todd Downing draws up more designed runs this week and utilizes Willis’ unique athleticism to counteract a very dangerous Cowboys pass rush. 

If Henry gets ruled out, Willis going for 50 yards or more rushing is a very intriguing addition to any single-game parlay for this Thursday.

Dallas will come in revving at full throttle on offense. They’re second in the league in points per game over the last three weeks (33.2) and have averaged 38.3 points against the AFC South this year. The Cowboys are just 1-2 covering as away favorites this year, but are likely salivating at the chance of beating up a depleted Titans team. 

Early money has been coming in on the Cowboys and pushed this line past a key number to where it’s now sitting at -10.5 points as of writing. That line still seems tame. Dallas is not scared to run up the score and six of their 11 wins this year have come by 12 or more points. Their defense has been getting chewed up by outside WRs of late but that won’t be much of an issue against the Titans, who averaged 4.13 yards per pass attempt last week. 

The Titans resting players has likely already been baked into this line somewhat. In that regard, if or when Henry (and others) officially get announced as out, you may even see this line swing back to under -10.0 again where the Cowboys would be the greatly preferred play. 

Dallas has been great at spreading out the usage of late but in a non-competitive game, don’t be shocked if we see CeeDee Lamb take a small step back. Prescott went to Lamb excessively against the Eagles and Jaguars because of game flow and the competitive nature of those matchups, but will likely take a more measured approach this week. 

Tony Pollard, who hasn’t scored in two games now, would be a great TD candidate for Thursday, if he plays. Pollard popped up on the injury report this week, although Jerry Jones did indicate he expects Pollard to be on the field. The soon-to-be free agent has eight TDs of 10 yards or longer this year and his receiving prowess would be a great asset against a Titans team that has allowed the sixth-most receptions to opposing RBs. 

This game has personnel decisions that will need to be monitored up until kick-off. If Henry sits, expect Malik Willis’ rushing opportunities to potentially skyrocket, while a Tony Pollard injury for the Cowboys would make them a far less certain bet to cover the massive spread.