Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

The Lions and Packers were both able to exit Week 3 with wins, but how they came about their Ws varied greatly in circumstance. 

The Lions dominated the Falcons from start to finish. They landed seven sacks on Desmond Ridder, and their defensive line now comes into this game ranked 10th in overall pressure rate on the season. 

DL Aidan Hutchinson was able to land his first two sacks of the year and will certainly be a man of concern for the Packers—who were missing two offensive linemen in their game against the Saints. 

On top of the great D-line performance, Detroit’s offense gelled better against Atlanta than it has all season. Rookie Sam LaPorta (8-84-1) emerged as the legitimate number two option for Jared Goff (243-1-1) and looks like a player who is going to be a week-to-week problem for opposing defenses. LaPorta’s usage was up across the board in Week 3 as he posted a 39% targets per route run rate (TPRR) and saw his aDOT increase dramatically to 7.09 (up from sub 6.0 the first two weeks). 

Sep 24, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) celebrates after catching a touchdown pass against the Atlanta Falcons in the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

The Packers do defend the TE position well but could be dealing with a significantly improved Lions run game come Thursday night. Both David Montgomery (thigh) and left tackle Taylor Decker (ankle) were listed as limited participants in practice on Monday and look likely to be game-time decisions at worst for Detroit. 

Jahmyr Gibbs (17-80, 1-2) looked comfortable handling a bigger workload and made some big runs down the stretch to close out the game. The Packers are just 18th in yards per carry against and got run all over by Atlanta two weeks ago. Assuming Gibbs again sees a bigger share of the carries in Week 3, this could be his true breakout spot for fantasy managers. 

The Packers' win in Week 3 came through sheer will and determination—and a little bit of luck. Trailing 17-0 in the third quarter, the Packers benefited from a timid Saints offense that was missing their starting quarterback and staged a rally off some big plays from Jordan Love (259-1-1, 9-39-1). Love technically had his worst game of the season, posting just a 50% completion rate and a 61.1 QBR, but was able to make some huge plays with his legs down the stretch and rushed for his first TD of the season. 

It’s hard to be too judgmental on Love at this point (who is 2-1) as he’s been without his two most explosive weapons on offense in Christian Watson and Aaron Jones for most of the year. Both Jones and Watson were close to playing last week and seem like they will be coin flips at worst to suit up against the Lions—although their status will have to be monitored. 

In addition to Watson coming back—and potentially helping out with Love’s poor deep ball percentage—the Packers' own rookie TE Luke Musgrave may be a player they look to more to help settle the passing game this week. 

The Lions have allowed the most yards and receptions to opposing TEs this year, and Musgrave (6-49) posted his best game of the year with seasonal highs in target share and TPRR (both 19%). 

The injury report is going to be huge for this game. The Packers were missing two starting OL in LT David Bakhtiari (knee) and LG Elgton Jenkins (knee) and both men were listed as DNP for Monday. The same goes for WR Christian Watson (hamstring) and top CB Jaire Alexander (back). 

The Packers are slippery and Jordan Love is proving he’s a quarterback who can make plays when it matters, even if his statistics don’t necessarily scream elite talent at this point. However, the Lions also just pulverized an Atlanta team that beat the Packers just a couple weeks ago, and Detroit may be coming in much closer to full strength than Green Bay. The early line of Detroit -1.0 looks like it could drift toward Detroit’s side as the week goes on—especially if there is more bad news on Green Bay’s injury report. 

Keeping up with all the player news this week will be key, but with the spread at -2.0 or lower, getting on the Lions early in the week may allow you to grab some great closing line value.