Dolphins at Bills (-7) – 44.5 total

These two teams will square off for the second time this season, and it’s a very meaningful game for both squads. The Bills currently occupy the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which would give them home field advantage throughout the playoffs. However, they lead the Dolphins by just two games. If Miami can secure their second straight win against Josh Allen and company, they’ll move to just one game back in the standings and own the head-to-head tiebreaker. That would set up an exciting stretch run for squads.

If the Bills manage to even the season series at one game apiece, Miami’s playoff spot becomes precarious. They’re just one game ahead of the Patriots, Chargers, and Jets, and only two of those four teams can make the postseason. The Dolphins close the year with head-to-head matchups against the Patriots and Jets, so they’re going to want as much cushion as possible.

The big question surrounding the Dolphins is what the heck happened to their offense last week? They have been a wagon for most of the season, slicing through opposing defenses like a hot knife through butter. Tua Tagovailoa put himself in the MVP conversation, Tyreek Hill was threatening to become the first 2,000-yard receiver, and Mike McDaniel needed a wheelbarrow to carry around his… confidence.

The wheels fell off the wagon last week versus the Chargers. They racked up just 127 net passing yards, even though the Chargers were playing mostly backups in their secondary. They also struggled the week prior, but that was much more excusable with a banged up offensive line against the ferocious 49ers defense.

The Dolphins are going to need to hope Tua can rebound this week facing the Bills. They managed to secure an upset against the Bills in Week 3, but it was one of the most fraudulent results of the year. The Bills outgained the Dolphins by a whopping 285 yards, and you’re simply not supposed to win games when you’re outgained that badly.

The early betting in this matchup seems to favor the Dolphins, which does make some sense. The Dolphins are still 8-4 for the year, and it’s rare to be able to get such a good team as an underdog of greater than a touchdown. Historically, teams with a winning percentage of at least 66% have posted a record of 45-36-3 against the spread when getting at least seven points.

The final x-factor here is the weather. The current forecast in Buffalo doesn’t call for precipitation, but it does call for temperatures of around 25 degrees. While those conditions are normal for Buffalo, it’s not something that Tagovailoa is familiar with. Per the Action Network, Tua has started 63 games between the Dolphins and Alabama, and none of them have been below 36 degrees. As a professional, Tua is 0-3 against the spread in games that are 50 degrees or colder. That’s too small of a sample size to draw any definitive conclusions, but it’s not surprising that the Bills are more equipped for a winter showdown in Buffalo.