Dolphins at Bills

This game has seen a ton of line movement since the matchups were set last week. Miami opened as +10.5 underdogs but moved down to +9.5 on rumors Tua Tagovailoa might play. Tagovailoa was then promptly ruled out (concussion) on Wednesday – with backup Teddy Bridgewater (thumb) also ruled doubtful – which led to this line shooting up to +13.0. 

Since it was announced that 7th round draft pick Skylar Thompson would more than likely be starting for Miami this week at quarterback, the total has also dropped down to 43.5 points (from 47.5 points when Tagovailoa was considered the potential starter), which makes sense as the Dolphins have averaged 14 points in Thompson’s two starts this year. 

Thompson was a four year starter at Kansas State who put up solid numbers in his last two years of college but lacks big upside in both the pass and run game. He seems unlikely to be more than a game manager this week as Miami likely shifts its focus to the run game. 

Miami wasn’t a highly rated rush offense this season, but did run the ball well last week against the Jets, with RBs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. averaging 5.29 yards per carry between them. Unfortunately, Mostert broke his thumb against the Jets – more pain for Miami – and looks doubtful for this week. Expect to see a healthy dose of Wilson Jr. either way. 

Also of note is the fact that Mostert took 18 carries against the Jets in Week 5 (Thompson’s first start) and that the Dolphins ran the ball well against the Bills in their first meeting, with Mostert averaging 8.0 yards per carry for 136 yards. Even if they are less effective with Thompson starting, the volume Wilson Jr. would receive, should he have this backfield to himself, makes him an interesting contrarian target in playoff fantasy leagues and playoff best ball. His prop lines for total carries and yards will also be of interest once released later in the week. 

Buffalo did rank third in defensive rush DVOA this season, but they also allowed 4.9 yards per carry against over their final three games of the year. 

Miami’s rush defense ranked right behind Buffalo’s this season, but there was a vast gap between these two teams in pass defense. The Dolphins benefited from facing the likes of Joe Flacco, Chris Streveler, and Davis Mills down the stretch, but typically crumbled against elite quarterbacks this year. Miami also struggled on the road this season, allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt against, the sixth-worst road mark in the league. 

The Dolphins didn’t have a single cornerback that ranked in the top 20 graded by Pro Football Focus this season and allowed the seventh-most receptions to wide receivers. While TE Dawson Knox led the Bills in receptions and yards in the second game against Miami, don’t be shocked if we see a little more work headed towards Stefon Diggs and potentially even Gabriel Davis this week. 

Davis didn’t have the strongest finish, but his 10 targets last week tied Diggs and he produced a solid 14.0 yards per catch against the Dolphins in Week 15. His 55.4-yard projection for the week on Fantasy Life gives us a solid 7.0 yard cushion on his 47.5 receiving yard line on BetMGM and makes him an over target for props. 

While we can’t expect much from the Dolphins, their funnel to the pass defense and the fact that they have been successful running the ball in spots this year should help force the pace when the Bills are on offense. Add in a mistake or two by Thompson – which seems inevitable against a Bills defense who will likely be much tighter this week after a solid week of preparation – and you have the makings for a big day for Josh Allen and crew. 

The Bills have scored less than 28 points just twice over their last eight starts and with Allen’s elbow looking healthier the past few weeks, going over on the 27.5-point total this week for Buffalo is another way to get exposure to this game for betting. Betting on Bills alt lines up to 30+ points in same game parlays, mixed in with multiple TD passes for Josh Allen and his receivers, is also something to explore if in the mood for some bigger odds. 

With Miami closing out the year with just one win in their last seven games – and dealing with coaching rumors and a potentially career-threatening injury to their starting quarterback – a Buffalo romp looks inevitable. If you’re planning on watching, make sure you prepare an alternate viewing option for the second half.