Dolphins at Chiefs 

The Dolphins' loss to the Bills last week booked Miami a trip to Kansas City for Wild Card Week, in what will likely be the coldest game of the season to date. Temperatures on-field in Kansas City on Saturday night look set to be around 4 F at game time with the potential for winds to be in the 12-15 mph range (or worse). In short, it's gonna be cold. 

It’s a potential disaster scenario for a warm-weather team like Miami, who has traditionally been a much worse team on the road with Tua Tagovailoa under center. For his career, Tagovailoa is 18-8 ATS at home and 11-13-1 ATS as a visitor. This week, he’ll be facing a Chiefs secondary that was able to rest many of its starters last week and has allowed just 4.4 yards per attempt over their last three games (first in the league). 

Where the Dolphins can and need to attack is on the ground. As of now, it does sound like Raheem Mostert will have a good chance at playing in this game, and he did have success against the Chiefs in Week 9, going for 12 carries, 85 yards, and a TD. It’s also worth noting that this will be the first time the Chiefs see rookie De’Von Achane, who was out for that international meeting. Achane has averaged 6.79 yards per carry over his last two games and faces a Chiefs defense that is 28th in EPA per rush and 17th in success rate against the run as well. 

The Chiefs D-line will be rested and did look better in their final two games, but they will be tested to their full extent this week. After Tagovailoa threw two INTs against the Bills last week, to help seal the Buffalo win, it’s quite likely we will see Miami deploy an extremely run-heavy game plan. For betting, looking to take the unders on Dolphins passing props (Tagovailoa attempts and yards) is certainly of interest in the prop department. 

The Chiefs rested their starters last week for the most part and are likely hoping the extra prep time and rest will result in a more efficient game. They have had a dismal season by their standards, with Patrick Mahomes setting career lows in yards per attempt and yards per attempt (7.0) TD rate (4.5%) and INT rate (2.3%). The good news is that he’ll be up against a Dolphins secondary that has looked legitimately terrible in each of their last two outings. 

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) roll out of the pocket in the third quarter during a Week 17 NFL football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The Kansas City Chiefs won, 25-17.

Miami has now allowed an atrocious 11.5 yards per attempt over their last two games to go along with 7 passing TDs. Top corner Xavien Howard looks likely to be out this week once again, and Miami has struggled with elite TEs—and did so again last week, allowing rookie Dalton Kincaid to go for 7 rec. and 84 yards. Travis Kelce’s production tailed off this season, but with a week of rest under his belt, expect his legs to be more spry for this game and for him to potentially lead all the receivers in yards and catches. 

The total in this game opened around 46.5 and has dropped into the 43.5 to 44.0 range. It may continue to fall as the public becomes aware of how brutal the conditions Saturday night will be. I’ve already logged an under bet for this game in our free bet tracker and, as mentioned above, also like targeting the under on the Dolphins' passing props. 

The line in this game has also moved in the Chiefs' favor and now sits at Chiefs -4.0 at most sportsbooks. The number may move back to 3.5 if we get confirmation that Mostert and Jaylen Waddle are going to play, so waiting on the Chiefs (if that’s the side you like) is most likely the right play (if you can’t bet the -3.5 now).

This is somewhat of a widowmaker spot for the Dolphins. They are on the road, have terrible conditions for their high-flying offense, and face a rested Chiefs team (and the best QB in football). At the same time, they have the better run game and may be able to exploit that advantage somewhat against a weaker Chiefs rush defense. 

The Chiefs likely prevail, but if the Dolphins can get a lead, it’s possible the Chiefs' own offensive issues pop up again and secure an upset for the visiting Dolphins.