Dolphins at Jets

It’s safe to say the Jets enter this game at DEFCON ONE (that’s the highest level in case you’re wondering) after an embarrassing 32-6 loss to the Bills. The Jets did manage to score a TD against Buffalo (after failing to do so against the Raiders) but have scored an embarrassing 37 points total over their last four games. 

The lack of offense has forced the Jets to finally make a move at QB, and backup Tim Boyle will start for New York in this game. As bad as Zach Wilson has been, Boyle is not an improvement. In last week’s game he completed 7 of 14 passes for a meager 33 yards and an INT. For his career, he has 607 yards on a 60.8 percent completion rate with three passing touchdowns against nine interceptions. 

If you’re old like me and remember the Nathan Peterman incident, prepare yourselves, as this start could match Peterman’s in pure putridness. Boyle has a 7.5% INT rate over his career and in 2021 made three starts for the Lions. He threw for three TDs against six INTs in those games and the Lions lost all three contests. The Dolphins' defense may have its flaws, but it’s also added an elite corner in Jalen Ramsey, who has a 0.0 passer rating when targeted this year and three INTs in three games. The Dolphins are also sixth in pressure rate and ninth in sacks. 

If they (the Dolphins' defense) can pick-off Aiden O’Connell three times and hold the Raiders to 13 points, what might be the result here with Peterman, I mean Boyle, and the Jets? As Lindsay Lohan once said in a movie about Mean Girls, “The limit does not exist!”

Nov 19, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) runs with the ball against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Offensively, the Dolphins' receiving stars will be up against an elite unit in the Jets' defense, but even that has shown signs of cracking under all of the pressure that is currently building in New York. The Jets allowed Josh Allen to throw for three TDs and 8.5 yards per attempt last week, while simultaneously allowing over 100 yards rushing. The run game is where New York has been gashed in the past (19th in yards per rush against) and will certainly be an area where Miami (first in yards per rush) can press their biggest advantage. 

Rookie De’Von Achane (knee - questionable) may actually have a chance at suiting up to play in this game, but even if he doesn’t, stalwarts Raheem Mostert (5.3 yards per attempt) and Jeff Wilson Jr. are likely enough to get the job done for Miami. Mostert ran for 113 yards against the Jets in Week 5 last year and averaged 6.34 yards per attempt in two games against them last year as well.  

If this were a regular week, you might give the Jets a small chance of getting things together and coming up with a game plan to catch the Dolphins off guard. But even in that scenario, it seems far-fetched that Tim Boyle would be able to put one over on an emerging Dolphins defense. 

The line for this game was around 6.0-7.0 on the spread before last week but quickly moved to 9.5-10.0, which is where it stands now on most sportsbooks. It does feel like bettors are wary of taking the Dolphins on a big spread, especially after they failed to put the Raiders away in Week 11, and will now face a tougher defense. It’s a valid point, but the Jets' offense has been atrocious of late, and seems likely to get worse this week with Boyle at the helm. 

As long as this line stays at 10.0 or lower, it seems like a good time to chance that the vast difference in efficiencies between these offenses is just too much for New York to overcome and eventually leads to a landslide Dolphins win.