Dolphins at Patriots

This game has “I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed” vibes. Teddy Bridgewater will start for the Dolphins, and the Patriots are still figuring things out on offense. Normally, switching to the backup quarterback would be a cause for concern. But for Miami, I’m not as worried.

Let’s look at Bridgewater’s situation from two angles. First, he still has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the field with him. Even since Waddle popped up on the injury report in Week 14, the duo has accounted for 42.2% of Miami’s passing attempts. And, even better, they are first (Waddle – 3.89) and second (Hill – 3.16) in YPRR among all WRs over that three-game span. The Patriots have let shifty interior receivers get the best of them, with Tee Higgins (3-32-1), Trenton Irwin (4-45-2), and Mack Hollins (8-40-1) finding the paint. Their success keeps Hill (42.9% slot rate) in the top 12 and Waddle as a low-end WR2. But Bridgewater’s been able to operate the offense on his own this season.

It was only two partial games (Week 4 and Week 6), but the Dolphins’ offense averaged 32.1 yards per drive with Bridgewater under center. He had a 4.8% CPOE which should keep the passing game afloat. However, with the Patriots still tenth in rushing defense DVOA, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert will have tough sledding against New England’s defensive front. But if Mac Jones can’t get the offense on track, we may see more of the Dolphins’ backfield than anticipated.

The passing offense with Jones has been, at best, volatile. Jakobi Meyers leads the team in targets, as DeVante Parker is still out with a concussion. Meyers is the safe PPR flex option, but Kendrick Bourne could be your man if you need to swing for the fences this week.

Jones took shots downfield on 24.2% of his attempts in Week 16. It was the season's second-highest rate, resulting in a score for the Patriots, and Bourne earned half of those targets. Aaron Rodgers also accrued 30.7% of his yards on explosive plays last week. However, they’re deeper options, with Jones still 27th in EPA per play. Rhamondre Stevenson is the most trustworthy option for championship week.

Stevenson’s TPRR has dropped from 0.29 to 0.18 after the ankle injury, but he’s still third in targets over the last two weeks. Regardless, a matchup against the Dolphins may help him deliver a title to fantasy managers. Miami is 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. We just watched AJ Dillon bulldoze his way into the endzone, and Buffalo totaled 153 yards on the ground against them in Week 15. New England’s offense may be in disarray, but Stevenson’s workload is the bright spot worth rostering for the championship.