Fantasy Football Strategy. Drafting from the 1.02 in 2023.

If you’re fortunate enough to be drafting from the 1.02 draft slot in 2023, there are some great options even assuming that Justin Jefferson is gone at 1.01.

I’m a big proponent of thinking ahead in drafts and letting future pockets of value help determine selections in the early rounds. In the 2023 draft landscape, I'm pretty confident that I'll be able to get a stud RB that I like at the Round 2-3 turn, which makes my 1.02 selection pretty easy.

No Justin Jefferson? No problem. Draft Ja’Marr Chase.

You can make a case for players like Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelce, or Cooper Kupp with this pick, but Chase is the only player in this group who is still ascending in his career.

The Bengal’s star WR is just 23 years old, is attached to Joe Burrow, and has casually averaged more than 85 receiving yards and 0.7 TDs per game in his young career.

Even more impressively, more than 25% of his regular season games have resulted in a top-five weekly WR finish in PPR scoring. That kind of week-winning upside is hard to find, and it's exactly why I want to build my roster around Chase if drafting from the 1.02.

And just in case you haven’t been thinking about football all summer long, the great Ian Hartitz has a helpful reminder for you.

Anchor RB + elite TE for the win

With an elite WR locked down at 1.02, I generally want to grab at least one anchor RB at the Round 2-3 turn. The dream would be for Tony Pollard to fall to the end of the second round, but he’s typically gone by pick No. 23.

Concerns in recent weeks over Jonathan Taylor’s contract status and health have caused his ADP to dip to this range, but whether that will still be the case in a few weeks when home league drafts are in full swing is unknown.

Assuming no great ADP value, my favorite option at the time of this writing is Rhamondre Stevenson. I’m still really in on Rhamondre despite the Patriots having signed Ezekiel Elliott, but I want to see how far Stevenson's ADP could fall before recommending him.

If Pollard, Taylor, and Derrick Henry are all gone, Josh Jacobs would then become the most compelling anchor RB option.

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) can't haul in a touchdown reception as Jacksonville Jaguars safety Andre Cisco (5) defends during the fourth quarter of a regular season NFL football matchup Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. The Jaguars edged the Ravens 28-27. Photo Credit: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

I plan to take plenty of WRs, but with Chase anchoring the position, I'd rather grab an elite TE at this turn and attack WR later in the middle rounds. I have a handful of TE targets to consider over the next few rounds:

Early 3rd: Mark Andrews
Late 4th/Early 5th: T.J. Hockenson or George Kittle
Late 6th/Early 7th: Darren Waller

If no top WRs drop to the Round 2-3 turn, I’m happy to grab Andrews in the early third and then look to hammer WR in the middle rounds.

If a second-round WR or RB were to unexpectedly fall past ADP, then I'd grab the value and pass on Andrews for Hockenson, Kittle, or Waller in the upcoming rounds.

The key is to remain flexible so that you can take advantage of great ADP values while constructing a strong, balanced roster.

Draft 5 WRs before the cliff

Chase is locked in as the WR1 on this roster, but I still want to make sure that I have plenty of depth at the WR position overall. Depending on which platform you are drafting on, the WR cliff can hit at different points, so you want to be conscious of the ADP for your specific league.

Once you've identified the ADP range with the last few WRs you would feel comfortable starting, I would recommend aiming to have at least five WRs by that point of the draft. That should give enough upside plays and depth at the WR position.

In practice, this means that the majority of your picks from Rounds 4 through 9 should be WRs. Some of my favorite WR targets that should be available when you are on the clock in different ranges of your draft when drafting from the 1.02 include:

Terry McLaurin (ADP of 55.0 overall)
Tyler Lockett (71.8)
Diontae Johnson (74.9)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (89.7)
Brandin Cooks (100.4)

These are some of my favorite cost-adjusted WR targets in drafts, but there are plenty of other WRs I would be happy to draft as well in the middle rounds depending on who falls in your particular draft.

Take selective detours

By loosely targeting five or so WRs through nine rounds while also grabbing an anchor RB and elite TE, I can only afford to allocate a couple of picks in the middle rounds to fill out the QB and RB positions.

Personally, I feel pretty comfortable figuring out my RB depth in-season, so I’m generally more likely to grab a high-upside QB in the middle rounds than multiple RBs.

Assuming that none of the elite QBs fall past ADP, there are a handful of signal-callers I like to target in Rounds 7 to 9 who I think have a shot to challenge the upper echelon at the position if things break right.

Mid-Round QB Options

My favorite QBs in this range are Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, and Anthony Richardson. These are the guys that I believe have an elite ceiling similar to those of the QBs going multiple rounds before them.

I’ll also give an honorable mention to Geno Smith as a QB I’ll occasionally draft in this range if I get sniped on my preferred players, especially if I already drafted one of the Seahawks WRs in the earlier rounds.

Of course, this all assumes a relatively normal draft board (lol since when is a draft ever normal?), so please don’t ignore a glaring ADP value when on the clock just because it means having to wait an extra round or two to round out your WR group. If your league gives you an advantage in the draft, take it.

However, for this exercise, we can’t predict what that might be, so we'll stick mostly to ADP as to which players might be available in each round.

Fill in the gaps with high-upside swings

Following this path means that your team will inevitably look weak at the RB or QB position. Depending on which positions you take your detours at, it should be pretty clear where you need help in the later rounds.

If you skip out on a strong QB option in favor of additional help at RB, you’ll probably want to grab a couple of mobile guys in the mid-to-late rounds who give you a high weekly ceiling in the right matchups.

Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Philadelphia Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell (14) makes a catch in the second quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs of Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Or if you’re like me and are comfortable going into the season light at RB on paper, the good news is that there are plenty of late-round RB targets with upside. I’ll mention a few of my favorites in the next section, but it should come as no surprise that we should be prioritizing rookie RBs, pass-catching RBs, and handcuffs with upside.

One of the most beneficial changes I’ve made to my redraft game over the years was to stop taking the supposedly "safe" players, particularly towards the end of drafts.

We want to take boom-or-bust guys, especially ones who will reveal early in the season whether they're busts or not.

I know that there will inevitably be players I want to add on waivers in the early weeks, and I will need to drop players when I make those moves. By taking a handful of risky bets, I can increase my odds of hitting that late-round league winner while also giving myself some easy cut candidates to churn for the latest waiver wire hotness early in the season.

Final results

Below is a hypothetical team that I constructed drafting from the 1.02 spot using the guide outlined above and average ADP across five different fantasy sites.

Round 1 (Pick 2) - Ja’Marr Chase
Round 2 (Pick 23) - Josh Jacobs
Round 3 (Pick 25) - Mark Andrews
Round 4 (Pick 47) - Terry McLaurin
Round 5 (Pick 50) - Diontae Johnson
Round 6 (Pick 71) - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Round 7 (Pick 74) - James Cook
Round 8 (Pick 95) - Brandin Cooks
Round 9 (Pick 98) - Anthony Richardson
Round 10 (Pick 119) - De’Von Achane
Round 11 (Pick 122) - Nico Collins
Round 12 (Pick 143) - Jaylen Warren
Round 13 (Pick 146) - Kenneth Gainwell
Round 14 (Pick 167) - Sam Howell

There are a handful of picks that seem like bad ADP value in this list, but that's partly due to me projecting that certain guys (such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba) will continue to rise in drafts as the preseason rolls on. This should reflect a more realistic cost that you will have to pay in a few weeks time.

For this team, I chose to grab James Cook instead of Deshaun Watson so that I could swing for the fences with Anthony Richardson a little later. I also nabbed a second high-upside QB in Sam Howell at the end of the draft to give myself another option at the position early in the year if needed.

Howell is someone I expect to be a priority waiver add for other fantasy managers early in the season, so I want to beat them to the punch by stashing him at the end of my bench to start the year if there are any question marks about my presumed starter. This gives me some options if Richardson comes out of the gate slow.

Given how replaceable the QB position is in 1QB leagues, I want to draft for ceiling at the position.

At RB, you can see that I built around my starters by adding an explosive rookie (Achane), a receiving RB with potential standalone value (Gainwell), and a handcuff with huge contingent upside (Warren). I should have a good idea early in the season how prominently Gainwell and Achane will figure into their respective offenses, which then allows me to cut them for more promising players on waivers if need be.

Overall, I really like this approach to drafting from the 1.02, as it allows you to take advantage of ADP values if they present themselves while also building a really strong squad even if no value players fall way past ADP.

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